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Multivariatne časovne vrste in kointegracija : magistrsko delo
ID Travnik, Klara (Author), ID Perman, Mihael (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window

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Abstract
Analiza časovnih vrst zaradi svoje velike uporabnosti velja za eno izmed pomembnejših področij statistike. Magistrsko delo zajema predstavitev multivariatnih časovnih vrst in vektorskih modelov časovnih vrst, s katerimi jih lahko opišemo. Natančneje obravnavamo vektorske avtoregresijske modele drsečih sredin, metode njihove identifikacije in napovedovanje prihodnjih vrednosti. Posvetimo se tudi predstavitvi koncepta kointegracije. Pri tem obravnavamo vektorski model korekcij napak, različne metode testiranja in načine ocenjevanja kointegracijskih vektorjev. Lotimo se tudi empiričnega modeliranja multivariatnih časovnih vrst v programskem jeziku R. Med seboj primerjamo napovedi modelov z upoštevanjem in brez upoštevanja prisotne kointegracije.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:kointegracija, multivariatne časovne vrste, vektorski avtoregresijski modeli drsečih sredin (VARMA), vektorski modeli korekcij napak (VECM)
Work type:Master's thesis/paper
Typology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:FMF - Faculty of Mathematics and Physics
Year:2026
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-179141 This link opens in a new window
COBISS.SI-ID:265952003 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:06.02.2026
Views:515
Downloads:193
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Multivariate time series and cointegration
Abstract:
Due to its great usefulness, time series analysis is regarded as one of the most important fields in statistics. This Master's thesis focuses on multivariate time series and the vector time series models they follow. A more detailed examination of vector autoregressive moving average models is provided, including methods for their identification and use in forecasting. Furthermore, the concept of cointegration is introduced. In this context, the vector error correction model is presented, along with various testing procedures and approaches to estimating cointegrating vectors. The thesis also includes empirical modeling of multivariate time series using the R programming language. Finally, a comparative analysis of forecasts from a model that accounts for cointegration and a model that does not is conducted.

Keywords:cointegration, multivariate time series, vector autoregressive moving average models (VARMA), vector error correction models (VECM)

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