Wildfires in natural environments are becoming increasingly frequent and intense due to climate change, posing a growing challenge for spatial planning and landscape management. In this master’s thesis, four scenarios of possible development of the fire-prone areas in the Karst region up to the year 2080 were constructed using the Land Change Modeler (TerrSet), based on land use changes observed between 2002 and 2022: a neutral scenario, a cultural landscape conservation scenario, intensive overgrowth scenario, and a scenario excluding firebreak infrastructure. Vegetation, climatic conditions, and elevation proved to be the key factors influencing spatial processes. The results indicate that, if current trends continue, fire-prone areas may expand significantly, primarily as a consequence of grassland overgrowth and agricultural land abandonment, while optimized scenarios suggest potential opportunities to mitigate this development. The findings of the study provide an insight into potential future changes, which may serve as a basis for understanding risks and for designing targeted and adaptive spatial management measures.
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