River water quality of major rivers in Slovenia in the context of climate change

Krzyk, Mario (author), Radulović, Lana (author), Šraj, Mojca (author)

Climate change affects surface water quality parameters, including river quality. This study analyses changes in climate parameters, specifically air temperature and solar radiation, and their impact on river water temperature. It also examines how changes in river water temperature and organic matter load affect oxygen saturation levels, a key indicator of river water quality. Using water quality data, the status as well as temporal and spatial trends of the analysed parameters were assessed for the period between 2007 and 2024 on the three largest Slovenian rivers: the Drava, Mura, and Sava. Relative importance analysis of temperature and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) using the Random Forest machine learning method showed that water temperature in the analysed rivers has an impact ranging from 51% to 66% on predicting oxygen saturation. The selected approach to analysing watercourse quality parameters enables the assessment of the impact of these parameters on river water quality. Based on these results, it will be possible to implement appropriate measures promptly to achieve sustainable river management by establishing a strategy that, under climate change conditions, safeguards water quality and maintains ecosystem protection, ensuring long-term ecological and socio-economic benefits.

• Language: English
• Keywords: climate change, water temperature, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), oxygen saturation, river water quality, statistical analysis, R software, sustainable river management, Slovenia
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Author Accepted Manuscript
• Year: 2026
• Number of pages: 19 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 18, iss. 3, [article no.] 1338
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-178708
• UDC: 502/504:556.5(497.4)
• ISSN on article: 2071-1050
• DOI: 10.3390/su18031338
• COBISS.SI-ID: 266707715
• Publication date in RUL: 29.01.2026

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Sustainability
• Shortened title: Sustainability
• Publisher: MDPI
• ISSN: 2071-1050
• COBISS.SI-ID: 5324897

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Title: Kakovost vode večjih rek v Sloveniji v kontekstu podnebnih sprememb
• Keywords: podnebne spremembe, temperatura vode, biokemijska potreba po kisiku, BPK, nasičenost s kisikom, kakovost rečne vode, statistična analiza, programska oprema R, trajnostno upravljanje rek, Slovenija

Projects

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: P2-0180-2022
• Name: Vodarstvo in geotehnika: orodja in metode za analize in simulacije procesov ter razvoj tehnologij