Identifying the tourism sector's exposure to climate change utilizing two different climate datasets : the case of three climatically diverse locations in Slovenia

Pogačar, Tjaša (author), Kuk, Rok (author), Kokot, Katja (author), Turnšek, Maja (author)

This study investigates the exposure of Slovenia's tourism industry to climate change by analyzing climate data from two sources: the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) and the Slovenian Environment Agency (ARSO). Three distinct climate zones in Slovenia, namely submediterranean, subcontinental and moderate climate of the hilly region are examined. Using climate indices such as CIT: 3S and HCI: Urban, the research assesses historical trends and future projections of climate suitability for various tourism activities. Key climate variables, including hot days, heavy precipitation, and snow cover, are analyzed to improve the understanding of climate exposure. The submediterranean region may experience extended tourist seasons but face challenges from heatwaves and water scarcity. The subalpine region, dependent on winter tourism, is projected to experience reduced snow cover and potential challenges for ski resorts. The subcontinental region could benefit from extended seasons for outdoor activities but may also face heat stress and extreme weather events. The study shows that climate indicators can offer valuable insights, but can also oversimplify complex climate processes. Discrepancies between CDS and ARSO data highlight potential biases, emphasizing the need for caution in interpreting absolute values. Climate projections inherently involve uncertainties, particularly for snow indicators. Ensemble modeling and careful consideration of uncertainties are essential for assessing future impacts. By addressing these considerations, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of climate change's implications for Slovenia's tourism sector and offers valuable guidance for adaptation planning.

• Language: English
• Keywords: climate change, exposure, tourism, climate indicators, data source, uncertainties
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2025
• Number of pages: Str. 1541–1556
• Numbering: Vol. 69, iss. 7
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-178478
• UDC: 551.58
• ISSN on article: 0020-7128
• DOI: 10.1007/s00484-025-02910-x
• COBISS.SI-ID: 234981379
• Publication date in RUL: 28.01.2026

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: International journal of biometeorology
• Shortened title: Int. j. biometeorol.
• Publisher: Springer Nature, International Society of Biometeorology
• ISSN: 0020-7128
• COBISS.SI-ID: 25638400

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: klimatske spremembe, turizem, negotovosti

Projects

• Funder: ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
• Project number: V7-2128
• Name: Podnebne spremembe in trajnostni razvoj slovenskega turizma

• Funder: Republic of Slovenia, Ministry for Economic Development and Technology