Future heatwave exposure of the European cattle sector

Malek, Žiga (author), See, Linda (author)

Among the many climate change impacts on the European cattle sector, heatwaves lead to some of the most profound impacts on the sector. It is therefore of utmost importance to estimate to what extent the European cattle sector can be exposed to heatwaves in the near future. Using outcomes of climate models, we analysed how cattle production systems in the wider European Union (EU) region will be exposed to changes in heatwave exposure under two scenarios. We look at both cattle systems, where animals predominantly graze on outdoor pastures, and those where they are kept indoors without access to the outdoors. We show that 6.2–13.7 million cattle livestock units (or 11.0–21.6% of current cattle in the EU and UK) will experience at least 15 additional heatwave days by 2050. This will affect 4.5–11.6% of cattle grazing outdoors compared with 18.3–+35% of cattle kept indoors without access to outdoor grazing. However, there are considerable differences between different countries in the region, with Southern European countries projected to be the most exposed. Our results therefore indicate, adaptation measures specific to different and diverse livestock system types and climatic regions across Europe are necessary for a more climate robust cattle sector in the EU.

• Language: English
• Keywords: climate change, adaptation, impacts, livestock, heatwaves
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2026
• Number of pages: 6 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 4, article no. ǂ6
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-177929
• UDC: 502/504
• ISSN on article: 2731-9202
• DOI: 10.1038/s44264-025-00113-w
• COBISS.SI-ID: 264561155
• Publication date in RUL: 13.01.2026

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: npj sustainable agriculture
• Shortened title: npj sustain. agric.
• Publisher: Nature Portfolio
• ISSN: 2731-9202
• COBISS.SI-ID: 181516291

Licences

• License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
• Description: The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: podnebne spremembe, odpornost ekosistemov, prilagajanje, vplivi

Projects

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: J4-50224
• Name: Načrtovanje in upravljanje krajin za ublažitev podnebnih sprememb in prilagajanje nanje

• Funder: EC - European Commission
• Funding programme: European Union’s Horizon 2020
• Project number: 101060423
• Name: LAnd use and MAnagement modelling for SUStainable governance
• Acronym: LAMASUS