High habitat potential but limited connectivity for brown bears throughout europe

Van den Bosch, Merijn (author), De Barba, Marta (author), Jerina, Klemen (author), Skrbinšek, Tomaž (author)

Aim Large carnivores worldwide have experienced substantial range contractions due to human activities, though several species are recolonising parts of their historical range. We aimed to assess current and potential European brown bear (Ursus arctos arctos) habitat as well as habitat connectivity on a continental scale. Location The extended biogeographical regions of Europe, spanning from Portugal to central Russia, longitudinally, and from Norway to Türkiye, latitudinally. Excluding inland seas; this area covers 11,151,636 km². Methods We assessed habitat suitability throughout the study area using an ensemble species distribution model with nine submodels, using data from 10 European bear populations and Türkiye. We used the resulting habitat suitability maps to conduct a least-cost path connectivity analysis and an omnidirectional circuit connectivity analysis. Main Conclusions Habitat suitability was strongly associated with low percentages of agricultural cover, low percentages of human development, and proximity to forest. Of our entire study area, 37% (4.09 million km²) is occupied or potentially suitable for bears. Connectivity analyses identified corridors that could facilitate movement among southern European bear populations, though agricultural land and human development limit connectivity between northern and southern European bear populations. Previous research estimated bears occupied 0.5 million km² across the European Union, while our results estimate 1.82 million km² of this part of our study area is potentially suitable for bears, though connectivity is limited. Our results inform conservation strategies and policy development for the future of brown bears in Europe, emphasising the need for transboundary conservation efforts.

• Language: English
• Keywords: habitat connectivity, habitat suitability, large carnivore, recolonisation, species distribution model, Ursus arctos
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2025
• Number of pages: 17 str.
• Numbering: Vol.ǂ 32, iss. 1, art. e70130
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-177688
• UDC: 599.744.21:591.52(4)
• ISSN on article: 1472-4642
• DOI: 10.1111/ddi.70130
• COBISS.SI-ID: 263257347

Note

V članku je navedenih še več virov financiranja.

• Publication date in RUL: 31.12.2025

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Diversity and distributions
• Shortened title: Divers. distrib.
• Publisher: Wiley
• ISSN: 1472-4642
• COBISS.SI-ID: 580085

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: povezanost habitatov, primernost habitata, velike zveri, ponovna naselitev, model razširjenosti vrste, rjavi medved