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Implementation of a graphical user interface for performing basic Bayesian statistical analyses
ID Posashkov, Evgenii (Author), ID Demšar, Jure (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window

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Abstract
Although Bayesian statistics offers a coherent and intuitive framework for statical modeling that allows for explicit uncertainty estimation and seamless integration of prior knowledge, its adoption is often hindered by the required fluency in specialized probabilistic programming languages (such as Stan for example). This thesis presents a graphical user interface (GUI) that allows users to carry out fundamental Bayesian analysis, such as parameter estimation, hypothesis testing, regression and hierarchical modeling, without the need for coding. Implemented as modular widgets in Orange Data Mining and integrated with Stan via the cmdstanpy interface, the system provides an intuitive interface for specifying priors, performing diagnostics and visualization. Testing confirmed stable posterior estimates for several practical examples via a user-friendly interface, making Bayesian methods accessible for education and applied research through computationally robust and transparent tools.

Language:English
Keywords:Bayesian statistics, Orange Data Mining, Stan, probabilistic language, priors, MCMC diagnostics
Work type:Master's thesis/paper
Typology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:FRI - Faculty of Computer and Information Science
Year:2025
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-177210 This link opens in a new window
COBISS.SI-ID:262714627 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:17.12.2025
Views:508
Downloads:324
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Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Title:Implementacija grafičnega uporabniškega vmesnika za izvedbo osnovnih Bayesovih statističnih analiz
Abstract:
Čeprav Bayesova statistika ponuja koherenten in intuitiven okvir za statistično modeliranje, ki omogoča eksplicitno ocenjevanje negotovosti in nemoteno vključevanje predhodnega znanja, je njena uporaba pogosto ovirana zaradi potrebnega znanja specializiranih probabilističnih programskih jezikov (kot je na primer Stan). Ta diplomsko delo predstavi grafični uporabniški vmesnik (GUI), ki uporabnikom omogoča izvajanje temeljnih Bayesovih analiz, kot so ocenjevanje parametrov, preverjanje hipotez, regresija in hierarhično modeliranje, brez potrebe po kodiranju. Sistem, ki je implementiran skozi modularne vtičnike v orodju za podatkovno rudarjenje Orange ter integriran z okoljem Stan preko vmesnika cmdstanpy, ponuja intuitiven vmesnik za določanje predhodnega znanja, izvajanje diagnostike ter pripravo vizualizacij. Testiranje je potrdilo stabilno delovanje na različnih praktičnih primerih s pomočjo uporabniku prijaznega vmesnika, kar Bayesove metode naredi bolj dostopne za izobraževanje in raziskave s pomočjo nabora robustnih in transparentnih metod razvitih v okviru pričujoče magistrske naloge.

Keywords:Bayesova statistika, Orodje za podatkovno rudarjenje Orange, Stan, probabilistični programski jezik, grafični uporabniški vmesnik

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