The Syrian crisis, which began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring, represents one of the most complex security challenges of the modern era. The Assad regime managed to withstand pressure relatively successfully and maintained its grip on power until the end of 2024, when, to the great surprise of the international community, the rebel group HTS overthrew the regime in Syria in a lightning offensive lasting just eleven days. Due to a range of conflicting interests, a wide array of both regional and global actors have been deeply involved in the Syrian crisis. The course and outcome of the conflict were also heavily shaped by the policies of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In the master's thesis, we compare selected factors that influenced the survival of the Assad regime during the first phase of the crisis (2011–2020) with those that led to its downfall in the second phase (2020–2024). Our analysis shows that the deterioration of economic and social conditions after 2020 weakened the Syrian state apparatus and negatively affected both public support for the regime and the morale of Syrian soldiers. This ultimately led to the rapid collapse of Assad's forces during the HTS offensive at the end of 2024. Furthermore, the study finds that the war in Ukraine and Israeli attacks on Iranian and Hezbollah forces in the region significantly weakened the regime’s two most important allies, Russia and Iran, to the extent that they were no longer able to provide the necessary support to fend off the rebel advance.
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