Climate change and the escalating cost of floods : new insights from regional risk assessment perspective

Vidmar, Andrej (author), Ghebrebimichael Ghilay, Filmon (author), Rusjan, Simon (author)

Global climate change is expected to alter characteristics of flood events. This study evaluates the rising flood risk and damage potential in the lower Vipava River valley—a transboundary catchment between Slovenia and Italy—under climate scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. The area has experienced multiple floods in recent decades, indicating high vulnerability. Using hydraulic modeling for current and future conditions, flood hazard zones were identified and integrated into the KRPAN model to estimate expected annual damage (EAD). The findings show that EAD escalates from €0.97 million under current conditions to €1.97 million under the most extreme scenario. A 20% rise in flood peaks leads to a 1.4-fold increase in damage, while a 40% rise results in losses that are more than double. Buildings show a 2.5-fold increase in EAD, and water infrastructure EAD rises by a factor of 1.9. These results underscore the substantial economic consequences of c limate change on flood risk. The study highlights the urgent need to incorporate climate scenarios into flood risk assessments and spatial planning to support adaptive strategies and reduce future damage. These insights are essential for making informed decisions and achieving long-term resilience.

• Language: English
• Keywords: climate change, flood risk, flood damage, expected annual damage
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Author Accepted Manuscript
• Year: 2025
• Number of pages: 15 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 15, issue oct., [article no.] 223
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-176111
• UDC: 502.3/.7:556.1
• ISSN on article: 2225-1154
• DOI: 10.3390/cli13110223
• COBISS.SI-ID: 256194563
• Publication date in RUL: 21.11.2025

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Climate
• Shortened title: Climate
• Publisher: MDPI AG
• ISSN: 2225-1154
• COBISS.SI-ID: 523031833

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Title: Podnebne spremembe in naraščajoča škoda zaradi poplav - nova spoznanja z vidika regionalne ocene poplavnih tveganj

Abstract

Globalne podnebne spremembe bodo po vsej verjetnosti spremenile značilnosti poplav. Ta študija ocenjuje naraščajoče tveganje poplav in potencialne škode v spodnji dolini reke Vipave – čezmejnem povodju med Slovenijo in Italijo – v skladu s podnebnimi scenariji RCP 2.6, 4.5 in 8.5. Območje je v zadnjih desetletjih doživelo več poplav, kar kaže na visoko ranljivost. Z uporabo hidravličnega modeliranja za sedanje in prihodnje razmere so bile identificirane poplavno ogrožene cone in vključene v model KRPAN za oceno pričakovane letne škode (EAD). Rezultati kažejo, da se EAD poveča z 0,97 milijona evrov v sedanjih razmerah na 1,97 milijona evrov v najbolj ekstremnem scenariju. 20-odstotno povečanje poplavnih vrhov povzroči 1,4-kratno povečanje škode, medtem ko 40-odstotno povečanje povzroči več kot dvojno povečanje izgub. Pri stavbah se EAD poveča za 2,5-krat, pri vodni infrastrukturi pa za 1,9-krat. Ti rezultati poudarjajo znatne gospodarske posledice podnebnih sprememb na poplavno tveganje. Študija poudarja nujno potrebo po vključitvi podnebnih scenarijev v ocene poplavnega tveganja in prostorsko načrtovanje, da se podprejo prilagoditvene strategije in zmanjša prihodnja škoda. Ti vpogledi so bistveni za sprejemanje informiranih odločitev in doseganje dolgoročne poplavne odpornosti.

• Keywords: podnebne spremembe, poplavna nevarnost, poplavna škoda, pričakovana letna škoda

Projects

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: V2-2371-2023
• Name: Razvoj metodologije za oceno razvitosti erozijskih procesov in kartiranje erozijske nevarnosti na območjih poplavljanja celinskih voda in morja