Details

Razširitev temeljnih modelov za časovne vrste z zunanjimi spremenljivkami
ID Klančič, Rok (Author), ID Bosnić, Zoran (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window, ID Kenda, Klemen (Comentor)

.pdfPDF - Presentation file, Download (634,38 KB)
MD5: AA53DFBC6F94EEC9EBCE7DD4BBA87786

Abstract
Pri napovedovanju časovnih vrst lahko zunanje spremenljivke modelu zagotovijo dodatne informacije, ki jih iz same časovne vrste ne more pridobiti. Ker je število multivariatnih temeljnih modelov za časovne vrste omejeno, se v diplomski nalogi osredotočamo na razširitev modela Time-MoE z zunanjimi spremenljivkami. Na podatkovnem naboru z višinami gladin podtalnice smo preizkusili več pristopov za dopolnitev modela Time-MoE: zaporedne in vzporedne ansamble, uporabo zadnjega sloja temeljnega modela ter neposreden vnos zunanjih spremenljivk v napovedno glavo. Med preizkušenimi metodami so se najbolje odrezali ansambli, ki so kombinirali statistične modele z modelom Time-MoE. Najuspešnejši med njimi je dosegel povprečno vrednost R2 enako 0,672, medtem ko je najboljši pristop z uporabo zadnjega sloja dosegel povprečno vrednost 0,607, pristop z neposrednim vnosom pa 0,500. V primerjavi z obstoječimi univariatnimi metodami so razvite metode dosegle boljše rezultate, predvsem zaradi dostopa do vremenskih podatkov. V primerjavi z obstoječimi multivariatnimi metodami pa so razlike izgledale zanemarljive, kar nakazuje, da Time-MoE v kombinaciji z vremenskimi podatki na obravnavanem podatkovnem naboru ne prinaša dodatnih prednosti. Kljub temu je prednost razvitih pristopov njihova modularnost, saj je mogoče temeljni model po potrebi zamenjati.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:časovna vrsta, multivariatni modeli, Time-MoE, zunanje spremenljivke
Work type:Bachelor thesis/paper
Typology:2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization:FRI - Faculty of Computer and Information Science
Year:2025
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-173275 This link opens in a new window
COBISS.SI-ID:253461507 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:15.09.2025
Views:451
Downloads:159
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
:
Copy citation
Share:Bookmark and Share

Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Extension of foundation models for time series with exogenous covariates
Abstract:
When forecasting time series data, exogenous covariates can provide the model with additional information that cannot be obtained from the time series alone. Since the number of multivariate foundation models for time series is limited, this thesis focuses on extending the Time-MoE model with exogenous covariates. On the dataset of groundwater level measurements, we tested several approaches to augment the Time-MoE model: sequential and parallel ensembles, using the last hidden layer of the foundation model and directly inputting exogenous covariates into the prediction head. Among the methods tested, the best-performing approaches were ensembles that combined statistical models with the Time-MoE model. The most successful among them achieved an average R2 value of 0.672, while the best approach using the last layer achieved an average value of 0.607, and the approach with direct input 0.500. Compared to existing univariate methods, the developed methods achieved better results, primarily due to access to weather data. Compared to existing multivariate methods, however, the differences looked negligible, indicating that Time-MoE combined with weather data does not provide additional advantages on the dataset considered. Nevertheless, the advantage of the developed approaches is their modularity, as the foundational model can be replaced if needed.

Keywords:time series, multivariate model, Time-MoE, exogenous covariates

Similar documents

Similar works from RUL:
Similar works from other Slovenian collections:

Back