Real-time economic indicators in NSIs

Lotrič Dolinar, Aleša (author), Polanec, Sašo (author), Bavdaž, Mojca (author)

Timely and accurate economic data are vital, especially in times of great turbulence. Quantitative monthly output indicators often lag around one to two months, hindering effective decision-making. Consequently, research into (near) real-time estimation has surged, particularly within central banks and institutes. Recent crises have challenged traditional nowcasting approaches, proven inadequate for the current turbulent economic landscape. To assess the current state of real-time estimation, we conducted an international survey of National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) and undertook in-depth interviews with the Bank of Slovenia and the Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development, both actively engaged in nowcasting and forecasting. Follow-up interviews were also held with some NSIs. Our findings revealed limited engagement with real-time estimation among NSIs, primarily due to staff shortages, despite top management support. Three key best practices emerged for accelerating indicator releases: streamlining data collection, producing granular real-time indicators shedding light on different aspects of the economy and implementing advanced modelling techniques. These practices offer a pathway for NSIs to generate more agile and impactful economic data in periods of increased turbulence and uncertainty.

• Language: English
• Keywords: statistics, economic statistics, models, nowcasting, economic statistics, modelling, timeliness
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: EF - School of Economics and Business
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2025
• Number of pages: Str. 294-304
• Numbering: Vol. 41, iss. 2
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-172671
• UDC: 311
• ISSN on article: 1874-7655
• DOI: 10.1177/18747655251341466
• COBISS.SI-ID: 236857859
• Publication date in RUL: 10.09.2025

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Statistical journal of the IAOS
• Publisher: SAGE
• ISSN: 1874-7655
• COBISS.SI-ID: 1347262

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: statistika, ekonomska statistika, indikatorji, modeli

Projects

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: V5-2346-2023
• Name: Spremljanje kratkoročnega gibanja tržnega gospodarstva v čim bolj realnem času

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: P5-0441-2023
• Name: Regeneracija ekonomije in posla