Vpliv promptnega trga na terminski trg električne energije

JEREB, ANDRAŽ (author), Pantoš, Miloš (mentor)

Razmerje med promptnim in terminskim trgom električne energije je ključno za razumevanje delovanja sodobnega energetskega trga, vendar je ta povezava pogosto nestanovitna in se spreminja skozi čas. Glavni problem je razumevanje, kako fundamentalni dejavniki vplivajo na povezanost in cenovne razlike med trgi. V nalogi analizirajte povezavo med trgoma in ključne dejavnike, ki vplivajo na nihajnost in predvidljivost cenovnih razlik med trgi, za ključne evropske trge, kot so nemški, francoski, italijanski in madžarski trg električne energije.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: promptni trg, terminski trg, električna energija, cenovne razlike, volatilnost, obnovljivi viri energije, cena zemeljskega plina, ARIMAX, Spearmanova korelacija, energetska kriza.
• Work type: Master's thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
• Organization: FE - Faculty of Electrical Engineering
• Year: 2025
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-171735
• COBISS.SI-ID: 256694019
• Publication date in RUL: 01.09.2025

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: The Influence of the Spot Market on the Futures Electricity Market

Abstract

The relationship between the spot and futures electricity markets is key to understanding the functioning of the modern energy market; however, this connection is often volatile and changes over time. The main challenge lies in understanding how fundamental factors influence the relationship and price differences between the markets. In the thesis, analyse the connection between the two markets and the key factors that affect the volatility and predictability of price spreads between them, focusing on major European electricity markets such as Germany, France, Italy, and Hungary.

• Keywords: spot market, futures market, electricity, price spreads, volatility, renewable energy sources, natural gas price, ARIMAX, Spearman correlation, energy crisis.