Exploring the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on sustainable development goals 8 and 9 : insights from four European Union countries

Hu, Haisheng (author), Pikalo, Jernej (author)

Against the backdrop of deepening globalization and regional cooperation, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has emerged as a key pathway for promoting sustainable development. However, existing research primarily focuses on its macroeconomic impacts, with limited systematic analysis of its mechanisms in achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) 8 and 9. This study addresses these gaps by developing an analytical framework that incorporates industrial upgrading, policy responsiveness, cultural identification, and economic dependence. Using a difference-in- differences (DID) model and panel data from Poland, Italy, Slovenia, and Croatia covering the period 2009–2022, the empirical analysis reveals that the BRI significantly advances SDGs 8 and 9 in host countries primarily through promoting industrial upgrading. Further findings show that higher levels of policy responsiveness and cultural identification substantially enhance policy effectiveness, while economic dependence follows an inverted U-shaped curve—indicating that moderate dependence fosters development, whereas excessive dependence introduces risks. Based on these results, this study recommends improving policy responsiveness through joint governance mechanisms, institutionalizing cultural cooperation to enhance identification, and optimizing economic dependence structures to facilitate institutional embeddedness and sustainable development within the BRI framework.

• Language: English
• Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, cultural identification, inverted U-shaped relationship, policy responsiveness, sustainable development, goals 8, goals 9, 2009-2022
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FU - Faculty of Administration; FDV - Faculty of Social Sciences
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2025
• Number of pages: Str. 8251-8273
• Numbering: Vol. 33, iss. 6
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-171096
• UDC: 33:[502.131.1:625]
• ISSN on article: 0968-0802
• DOI: 10.1002/sd.70077
• COBISS.SI-ID: 244747267
• Publication date in RUL: 04.08.2025

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Sustainable development
• Shortened title: Sustain. dev.
• Publisher: Wiley, ERP Environment
• ISSN: 0968-0802
• COBISS.SI-ID: 512083481

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.