Arable farms are characterised by specialised crop production in which market conditions, weather factors and the availability of production resources play a decisive role. In recent years, their performance has been significantly affected by global shocks, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The pandemic initially reduced production costs, but had a negative impact on markets and distribution chains, while the war led to a sharp increase in costs due to higher energy and raw material prices. Nevertheless, the high sales prices in 2022 enabled the companies to achieve favourable business results, which were not repeated in subsequent years. In addition, there were agricultural policy changes during this period, such as the abolition of coupled support for grain production, which further impaired the economic situation of arable farms. This master's thesis analyses the effect of price volatility on the economic performance of selected typical arable farms in Slovenia in the period 2018–2024. Particular attention is paid to the consequences of two major external shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which have significantly affected both global input and output markets and thus also Slovenian agricultural systems. Using the bioeconomic farm model SiTFarm, which is based on mathematical programming methods, we analysed the changes in the economic situation, cost and yield structures under different scenarios at the level of typical farms. The analysis of five different typical agricultural systems shows that farms with better mechanisation, optimised farm management and greater production diversification achieved better economic results and were therefore more resilient to price fluctuations.
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