A framework for harmonized cross-border seismic risk assessment

Babič, Anže (author), Polese, Maria (author), Tocchi, Gabriella (author), Faravelli, Marta (author), Borzi, Barbara (author), Dolšek, Matjaž (author)

In transboundary areas, harmonizing risk assessment across borders is essential for effective risk management. However, differing methodologies for seismic risk assessment used by different countries can yield unequal results on either side of the border. This study presents a framework for harmonized cross-border time-based risk assessment, built upon established seismic risk assessment practices at the national level. The framework considers cross-border hazard, exposure, fragility, and consequence models, aiming to harmonize different data sources, methodologies, and models. An emphasis is given to a heuristic approach for the harmonization of fragility curves defined in the national fragility models. The proposed framework is implemented for the Italian-Slovenian cross-border region defined by municipalities near Gorizia and Nova Gorica. The results reveal differences in seismic risk levels between the building stocks on the Slovenian and Italian sides, primarily due to higher building density, seismic hazard, and vulnerability in Italy, while the seismic risk to people was observed to be nearly equal for urban centers like Gorizia and Nova Gorica. These findings can be used to design joint strategies for long-term risk management of the analysed cross-border region. However, further research is needed, particularly to overcome limitations related to the data sources of the exposure models and methodologies for fragility and consequence models, which can be addressed over a long period through systematic standardization of cross-border seismic risk assessment.

• Language: English
• Keywords: civil engineering, seismic risk assessment, building stock, cross-border area, harmonization, loss estimation
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2025
• Number of pages: Str. 2421-2449
• Numbering: Vol. 23, iss. 6
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-168892
• UDC: 624.07:699.8
• ISSN on article: 1573-1456
• DOI: 10.1007/s10518-025-02130-z
• COBISS.SI-ID: 234604291
• Publication date in RUL: 06.05.2025

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Bulletin of earthquake engineering
• Publisher: Springer Nature
• ISSN: 1573-1456
• COBISS.SI-ID: 513131033

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: gradbeništvo, ocena potresnega tveganja, stavbni fond, čezmejno območje, usklajevanje, ocena izgub

Projects

• Funder: EC - European Commission
• Funding programme: UCPM-2020-PP-AG
• Project number: 101004882
• Name: Cross BOrder RISk assessment for increased prevention and preparedness in Europe
• Acronym: BORIS

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: P2-0185
• Name: Potresno inženirstvo