Presoja modela ZEMOKOST za hidrološko modeliranje hudournikov

Kumprej, Janja (author), Kobal, Milan (mentor), Vilhar, Urša (comentor)

Slovenija, bogata z vodnimi viri, se zaradi vse pogostejših obilnih padavin sooča s številnimi izzivi na področju urejanja hudourniških območij. Predstavljen in na merjenih odtokih je validiran hidrološki model ZEMOKOST, ki se v alpskem prostoru uporablja za napovedovanje visokih voda in načrtovanje ukrepov za zaščito pred škodljivim delovanjem voda. Glavne raziskovalne hipoteze vključujejo preučevanje vpliva količine in intenzitete padavin na razlike med modelnimi napovedmi maksimalnih pretokov ter izmerjenimi maksimalnimi odtoki. Raziskava je bila izvedena na območju Pahernikove posesti in Osankarice na Pohorju. Merjenje odtokov se je izvedlo z metodo razredčenja ter namestitvijo Parshalovih prelivov. Na Pahernikovi posesti so bile padavine izmerjene na samodejni meteorološki postaji v središču raziskovalnega objekta, za Osankarico pa so bili uporabljeni podatki meteorološke postaje na Rogli. Rezultati so pokazali, da hidrološki model ZEMOKOST natančno napoveduje maksimalni odtok, prav tako spreminjanje odtoka za čas trajanja padavinskega dogodka. Na razlike med modeliranimi napovedmi odtokov in merjenimi odtoki vplivata količina ter intenziteta padavin, saj so razlike med modelnimi in izmerjenimi odtoki večje pri manjših padavinskih dogodkih, medtem ko se se pri večjih padavinskih dogodkih zmanjšajo.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: ZEMOKOST, vodozbirno območje, hidrološko modeliranje, hudourništvo, gozd
• Work type: Master's thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Publisher: [J. Kumprej]
• Year: 2025
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-168492
• UDC: 630*3:630*1(043.2)=163.6
• COBISS.SI-ID: 232919555
• Publication date in RUL: 16.04.2025

KUMPREJ, Janja, 2025, Presoja modela ZEMOKOST za hidrološko modeliranje hudournikov [online]. Master’s thesis. J. Kumprej. [Accessed 17 May 2025]. Retrieved from: https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=168492

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Assesment of a model ZEMOKOST for hydrological modeling of torrents

Abstract

Slovenia, rich in water resources, faces numerous challenges in managing torrential areas due to increasingly frequent heavy rainfall. The hydrological model ZEMOKOST, validated on measured flows, is presented as a tool used in the Alpine region for forecasting high water levels and planning measures to mitigate the harmful effects of water. The main research hypotheses include examining the impact of precipitation volume and intensity on the differences between model predictions and measured flows. The research was conducted in the Pahernik estate and Osankarica area on Pohorje. Flow measurements were performed using the dilution method and the installation of Parshall flumes. At the Pahernik estate, precipitation data were collected from an automatic meteorological station located at the center of the research area, while for Osankarica, data from the Rogla meteorological station were used. The results showed that the ZEMOKOST hydrological model accurately predicts peak runoff, as well as runoff variations throughout the duration of a rainfall event. The differences between the modeled runoff predictions and measured runoff are influenced by the amount and intensity of precipitation, as discrepancies between modeled and measured runoff are greater for smaller rainfall events, whereas they decrease for larger precipitation events.

• Keywords: ZEMOKOST, watershed, hydrological modelling, torrent control, forest