A preliminary investigation of the small rockfall triggering conditions along a road network in Slovenia

Šegina, Ela (author), Jemec Auflič, Mateja (author), Mikoš, Matjaž (author), Bezak, Nejc (author)

Rockfalls are among the natural hazards that endanger infrastructure, cause major economic disruptions, and threaten human lives. These phenomena result from long-term geological processes such as tectonic rock deformation or weathering, but the actual rockfall itself occurs suddenly, usually without warning. The triggering mechanisms are complex and difficult to trace. In this study, we investigated the triggering mechanisms of more than 2100 small rockfalls that occurred in 2021 in Slovenia, Europe, along the 51,000 km long national road network. We analyzed their spatial and temporal characteristics, as well as the triggering mechanisms of their occurrence, based on different weather scenarios. Multiple data mining methods were used to investigate triggering conditions, and scenario analyses were used to understand the triggering mechanisms. Most small rockfalls in 2021 were recorded in winter and spring at a density of 1 rockfall per 10 km$^2$. The results show that winter weather conditions have the greatest potential for triggering small rockfalls in Slovenia, both in terms of spatial extent and frequency of triggering weather conditions. The analysis showed that summer storms are an important but indeterminant factor for the occurrence of small rockfalls. Among the scenarios tested, the winter scenario, which includes a combination of antecedent precipitation, snowmelt, and freeze‒thaw cycles a few days before the event, was able to predict 72% of the events in the colder season.

• Language: English
• Keywords: small rockfalls, triggering mechanisms, scenario analysis, rainfall triggering, regional scale, data mining, Slovenia
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2025
• Number of pages: Str. 739–751
• Numbering: Vol. 22, iss. 3
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-167730
• UDC: 55
• ISSN on article: 1612-510X
• DOI: 10.1007/s10346-024-02302-z
• COBISS.SI-ID: 201975555
• Publication date in RUL: 10.03.2025

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Landslides : journal of the International Consortium on Landslides
• Publisher: Springer Nature, International Consortium on Landslides
• ISSN: 1612-510X
• COBISS.SI-ID: 2274913

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: majhni skalni podori, mehanizmi sprožitve, analiza scenarijev, sprožitev ob padavinah, regionalna raven, podatkovno rudarjenje, Slovenija