Price volatility and GHG emissions analysis on smaller cattle herds typical for the pre-Alpine region, the example of Slovenia

Brečko, Jure (author), Rozman, Črtomir (author), Žgajnar, Jaka (author)

Agricultural input and output prices have become extremely volatile in recent years and the global meat industry faces sustainability challenges related to climate change, resource competition, environmental regulations, animal welfare concerns, consumer preferences and industry policies. Additionally, the economic situation of cattle fattening farms has been significantly impacted by two major shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the war in Ukraine. This has led to a growing demand for microsimulation tools that can analyse how these conditions affect the operations of agricultural farms and address various technological challenges at both the farm and sector levels. In this paper, we present a farm model to analyse the cattle farming sector for the pre-Alpine region, using Slovenia, a typical example of this region, as a case study. These farms are particularly important from both social and environmental sustainability perspectives, and it is crucial that economic sustainability follows suit. The results of the SiTFarm model show that, on average, farms in the cattle farming sector achieved modest results between 2018 and 2022, with an average gross margin of 9.57 €/h. However, the variability is significant, with a coefficient of variation 0.74. Only 25% of farms exceeded 17.15 €/h, while 25% did not surpass 4.46 €/h. At the sector level, the gross margin decreased by 12% in 2020 but increased by 99% in 2022 compared to the reference year 2018, highlighting the incredible price volatility over a short period. The model results also indicate greenhouse gas emissions ranging from 5.01 to 7.77 kg CO$_2$ eq. per kg of daily body weight gain on the analysed farms. Nearly half of the farms have GHG emissions for cattle fattening exceeding 6.1 kg CO$_2$ eq. per kg daily body weight gain, while about 10% of farms achieve a sustainability target of approximately 5 kg CO$_2$ eq. per kg of daily body weight gain.

• Language: English
• Keywords: agricultural input, output prices, price volatility, meat industry, climate change, GMG emissions, smale cattle herds, Slovenia, environmental regulations, animal welfare, farms, cattle, agricultural economics, livestock, weight gain, agriculture, carbon dioxide, sustainable agriculture
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2024
• Number of pages: 16 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 19, iss. 11, art. e0310713
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-166013
• UDC: 338
• ISSN on article: 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0310713
• COBISS.SI-ID: 216575747
• Publication date in RUL: 17.12.2024

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: PloS one
• Publisher: PLOS
• ISSN: 1932-6203
• COBISS.SI-ID: 2005896

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: govedoreja, prireja mesa, ekonomika, nihanje cen, podnebne spremembe, toplogredni plini, emisije, Slovenija

Projects

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: P4-0133
• Name: Trajnostno kmetijstvo

• Funder: ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
• Project number: P4-0022
• Name: Ekonomika agroživilstva in naravnih virov