A perspective on the need for integrated frameworks linking species distribution and dynamic forest landscape models across spatial scales

Hof, Anouschka R. (author), Mina, Marco (author), Mairota, Paola (author), Aguilar, Francisco X. (author), Leitinger, Georg (author), Brůna, Josef (author), Koivula, Matti (author), Klopčič, Matija (author), Sjogren, Jörgen (author), Vacchiano, Giorgio (author)

Climate change significantly alters species distributions. Numerous studies project the future distribution of species using Species Distribution models (SDMs), most often using coarse resolutions. Working at coarse resolutions in forest ecosystems fails to capture landscape-level dynamics, spatially explicit processes, and temporally defined events that act at finer resolutions and that can disproportionately affect future outcomes. Dynamic Forest Landscape Models (FLMs) can simulate the survival, growth, and mortality of (stands of) trees over long time periods at small resolutions. However, as they are able to simulate at fine resolutions, study landscapes remain relatively small due to computational constraints. The large amount of feedbacks between biodiversity, forest, and ecosystem processes cannot completely be captured by FLMs or SDMs alone. Integrating SDMs with FLMs enables a more detailed understanding of the impact of perturbations on forest landscapes and their biodiversity. Several studies have used this approach at landscape scales, using fine resolutions. Yet, many scientific questions in the fields of biogeography, macroecology, conservation management, among others, require a focus on both large scales and fine resolutions. Here, drawn from literature and experience, we provide our perspective on the most important challenges that need to be overcome to use integrated frameworks at spatial scales larger than the landscape and at fine resolutions. Future research should prioritize these challenges to better understand drivers of species distributions in forest ecosystems and effectively design conservation strategies under the influence of changing climates on spatially and temporally explicit processes. We further discuss possibilities to address these challenges.

• Language: English
• Keywords: climate change, dynamic landscape modelling, species distribution modelling, species conservation, environmental niche models
• Typology: 1.03 - Other scientific articles
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Publication date: 19.09.2024
• Year: 2024
• Number of pages: Str. 1-10
• Numbering: Vol. 12, [article no.] ǂ1112712
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-162291
• UDC: 630*12:57.03
• ISSN on article: 2296-701X
• DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2024.1112712
• COBISS.SI-ID: 208332291
• Publication date in RUL: 20.09.2024

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Frontiers in ecology and evolution
• Shortened title: Front. ecol. evol.
• Publisher: Frontiers Media S.A.
• ISSN: 2296-701X
• COBISS.SI-ID: 37643053

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: podnebne spremembe, modeliranje pokrajine, modeliranje razširjenosti vrst, ohranjanje vrst, modeli okoljskih niš