Vpliv podnebnih sprememb na prirast lesa navadne bukve (Fagus sylvatica L.) in navadne smreke (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in potencialne posledice za biogospodarstvo v Sloveniji

Arnič, Domen (author), Prislan, Peter (mentor), Juvančič, Luka (comentor)

Raziskali smo vpliv podnebnih sprememb na debelinsko rast in lastnosti lesa smreke in bukve ter na razpoložljivost lesa in razvoj gozdno-lesnega biogospodarstva. Na različnih rastiščih po Sloveniji smo s prirastnim svedrom odvzeli vzorce bukve in smreke za dendrokronološke in lesno-anatomske raziskave ter z meritvami z rezistografom ocenili variabilnost gostote. Rezultati kažejo značilno zvezo med širino branike, lesno-anatomskimi posebnostmi in vremenskimi spremenljivkami. Potrdili smo značilno zvezo med zgradbo lesa in gostoto pri smreki, medtem ko pri bukvi teh zvez nismo ugotovili. Za oceno vpliva podnebnih sprememb ter gospodarjenja z gozdom smo simulirali različne načine gospodarjenja z gozdom in scenarije podnebnih sprememb na razpoložljivost lesa na trgu. Ugotovili smo, da načini gospodarjenja z gozdom ter ekstremni vremenski dogodki značilno vplivajo na razpoložljivost okroglega lesa na trgu. Razvili smo nacionalni input-output model za ovrednotenje možnih scenarijev prihodnjega razvoja gozdno-lesnega biogospodarstva. Iz rezultatov scenarijske analize input-output modela je razvidno, da lahko Slovensko gozdno-lesno biogospodarstvo preko prestrukturiranja gospodarskih aktivnosti v prihodnosti doseže do 20 % višjo vrednost proizvodnje, povečanje števila zaposlenih za 24 % ter povečanje dohodka gospodinjstev za 19 %. Podnebne spremembe bodo dolgoročno vplivale na drevesno sestavo in produktivnost slovenskih gozdov in s tem zahtevale tudi prilagoditev gozdno-lesnega biogospodarstva. V Sloveniji obstaja velik potencial multiplikativnih učinkov razvoja gozdno-lesne verige. Za izkoriščanje teh potencialov pa je treba razvoj gozdno-lesnega biogospodarstva načrtovati dolgoročno z jasno definiranimi cilji.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: gozdarstvo, navadna bukev, navadna smreka, prirast lesa, podnebne spremembe, biogospodarstvo, Slovenija
• Work type: Doctoral dissertation
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Year: 2023
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-145219
• COBISS.SI-ID: 149234691
• Publication date in RUL: 13.04.2023

ARNIČ, Domen, 2023, Vpliv podnebnih sprememb na prirast lesa navadne bukve (Fagus sylvatica L.) in navadne smreke (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in potencialne posledice za biogospodarstvo v Sloveniji [online]. Doctoral dissertation. [Accessed 26 April 2025]. Retrieved from: https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=145219

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Impact of climate change on wood increment in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and potential consequences for the bioeconomy in Slovenia

Abstract

In this thesis we examined the impact of climate change on the radial growth and wood properties of spruce and beech, as well as on wood availability and the development of the wood-based bioeconomy. Samples of beech and spruce were taken with an increment borer at different sites around Slovenia for dendrochronological and wood anatomical studies. Additionally, wood density variability was assessed using resistograph measurements. The results show a significant relationship between tree ring width, wood anatomical features and weather variables. We confirmed a significant relationship between wood structure and density in spruce, while no such relationship was found in beech. To assess the impact of climate change and forest management, we simulated different forest management practices and climate change scenarios on the availability of roundwood and found that forest management practices and extreme weather events have a significant impact on the availability of roundwood on the market. We developed a national input-output model to evaluate possible scenarios for the future development of the wood-based bioeconomy. The results of scenario analysis of the input-output model shows that the Slovenian wood-based bioeconomy can achieve up to 20% higher production value, 24% increase in employment and 19% increase in household income in the future through restructuring of economic activities. Climate change will cause a long-term change in the tree composition and productivity of Slovenian forests, and consequently require technological changes and adaptations of the wood-based bioeconomy. The wood value chain in Slovenia has a high potential for multiplier effects, while its development needs to be planned in the long term with clearly defined goals in order to exploit these potentials.

• Keywords: forestry, European beech, Norway spruce, wood increment, climate change, bioeconomy, Slovenia