Frost risk assessment in Slovenia in the period of 1981–2020

Žnidaršič, Zala (author), Gregorič, Gregor (author), Sušnik, Andreja (author), Pogačar, Tjaša (author)

As spring frost proves to be an increasing risk throughout Slovenia and Europe, a better assessment of frost risk is needed. The statistical approach presented in this article consists of the conditional probability that the last spring frost occurs before budburst or flowering. The analysis was conducted using two separate phenological models and phenological data of various grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.), apple (Malus domestica), and sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) varieties in locations across Slovenia. The increase in risk of spring frost for grapevine ranged from 1 to 1980, from 0.06 to 12 for apple, and from 1 to 180 for sweet cherry. Overall, the varieties most prone to frost proved to be Refošk (Teran) and Merlot grapevine varieties as well as the Germersdorf sweet cherry variety. We have identified the location in the hilly region with moderate climate where the Bobovec apple variety is grown as the least exposed to frost. Although counterintuitive, the GDD generally proved somewhat more efficient than the two-phase phenological model BRIN, although not in all cases. For the purpose of the study, the phenological models were calibrated, and the model parameters can serve as invaluable information for further research of this topic.

• Language: English
• Keywords: phenological model, Slovenia, spring frost, budburst, flowering, cliamate change, fruit tree
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2023
• Number of pages: 18 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 14, iss. 4
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-145114
• UDC: 551.58
• ISSN on article: 2073-4433
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos14040683
• COBISS.SI-ID: 148025347
• Publication date in RUL: 06.04.2023

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Atmosphere
• Shortened title: Atmosphere
• Publisher: MDPI
• ISSN: 2073-4433
• COBISS.SI-ID: 522992153

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: fenološki model, fenologija, Slovenija, pomladna zmrzal, cvetenje, brstenje, klimatske spremembe, sadno drevje

Projects

• Funder: ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
• Project number: P4-0085
• Name: Agroekosistemi

• Funder: ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
• Funding programme: Mladi raziskovalci