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MODELIRANJE CEN ELEKTRIČNE ENERGIJE IN VPLIV NOVIH DEJAVNIKOV NA TRGE ELEKTRIČNE ENERGIJE
ID Halužan, Marko (Author), ID Verbič, Miroslav (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window, ID Zorić, Jelena (Comentor)

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Abstract
V prvem poglavju podamo temeljit in sistematičen pregled natančnosti napovedovanja cen EE z najpomembnejšimi sodobnimi algoritmi. Z omenjenimi algoritmi smo napovedovali cene EE za dan v naprej na madžarskem in grškem tgu. V drugem poglavju raziščemo vpliv spajanja trgov z EE na njihovo delovanje. V ta namen razvijemo simulacijsko okolje, ki preslika delovanje borz z EE za dan v naprej na spojenih trgih. Modeliranje le teh oz. razvoj primernega simulacijskega okolja je poseben izziv, ki je v tržnih raziskavah pogosto spregledan. Proces spajanja je simuliran na stičišču treh regionalnih trgov, in sicer srednjezahodne Evrope, severne Italije in jugovzhodne Evrope. V tretjem poglavju obravnavamo proizvodnjo EE iz obnovljivih virov energije (OVE), ki ji raziskovalci posvečajo največjo pozornost in t. i. učinku izrivanja konvencionalnih virov električne energije (angl. merit order effect, MOE). Prisotnost omenjenega učinka empirično potrdimo na neraziskanem in manj zrelem grškem, madžarskem in romunskem trgu.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:napovedovanje cen električne energija, spajanje trgov električne energije, vpliv obnovljivih virov energije na cene električne energije
Work type:Doctoral dissertation
Organization:EF - School of Economics and Business
Year:2023
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-144935 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:23.03.2023
Views:810
Downloads:208
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:ELECTRICITY PRICE MODELLING AND THE ROLE OF NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN ELECTRICITY MARKETS
Abstract:
In the first chapter, we provide a thorough systematic overview of electricity price forecasting accuracy for the major contemporary forecasting algorithms. Forecasting performance is assessed based on the evidence from the Greek & Hungarian Power Market simulation. In the second chapter, we research the impact of market coupling on electricity markets. To do so, we propose a simulation framework that replicates day-ahead power exchange operations. Modelling coupled market areas consistently in one integrated framework is a specific challenge and is frequently overlooked in the electricity market research. The market coupling process is simulated at the junction of three regional power markets, namely the Central Western Europe, the Northern Italian, and the South Eastern Europe markets. In the third chapter, we address the topic researchers pay the most attention in the context of supported renewable generation, the so-called ‘merit order effect.’ We empirically confirm the merit order effect in less mature and the yet unresearched Greek, Hungarian, and Romanian electricity markets.

Keywords:electricity price forecasting, electricity market coupling, merit order effect

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