The European Union after the crisis : risks and opportunities the problem of "uncomfortable knowledge" and "institutionalised forgetfulness"

Straus, Joseph (author)

The crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic constitutes the most serious challenge for Europe since World War II. The crisis threatens Europe’s security and economy to an unprecedented level. No prediction on when and how the crisis will end is possible. However, irrespective of its end, there is no doubt that for Europe, it will generate costs amounting to several hundreds of billions if not even some trillions of Euros, i.e. seriously harm and weaken the European economy and endanger Europe’s position as a global economic power. It will also result in fundamental changes of international economic and political relations. Searching for, working on and designing rational and effective solutions to successfully master the aftermath of the crisis politically and economically should have a priority for the European Union, coming next only to the incredibly challenging efforts to master the ongoing crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic as well as the war in Ukraine caught the EU by surprise and unprepared. Europe should avoid such an experience in the future. Regardless of how this crisis will end, mastering its aftermath and identifying the respective risks and opportunities of the EU will have to start with identifying the main beneficiary(ies) of the crisis and analysing its (their) treatment of the EU and its Member States before and during the crisis. This will not be possible by limiting the actions to the day-to-day business, such as finding new suppliers for raw materials and energy, harmonising fiscal rules, providing the necessary funds to master the financial crisis, etc. A much broader visionary approach will be necessary to find solutions for sustainable peace in Europe. An outcome such as that of the Treaty of Versailles should be avoided. One should prevent the "sleepwalkers" of today, i.e. those ignoring the "uncomfortable knowledge", letting Europe slide into World War III. The EU should make it clear to all of its Members, for Europe, the "European Solidarity", with all of its attributes, constitutes the core of the EU’s genuine interests, including those of security and defence. This will require also amendments of the TEU and TFEU discussed in this paper. Otherwise, the EU and its Members will never acquire the status of an equal animal - in the global context - i.e. become truly sovereign and independent.

• Language: English
• Keywords: European Union, COVID-19, Ukraine, common foreign and security policy, financial crisis
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: PF - Faculty of Law
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Publication date: 01.01.2022
• Year: 2022
• Number of pages: Str. 9-41, 395, 411
• Numbering: Letn. 82
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-144691
• UDC: 341:330.3:061.1EU
• ISSN on article: 1854-3839
• DOI: 10.51940/2022.1.9-41
• COBISS.SI-ID: 132768771
• Publication date in RUL: 08.03.2023

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Zbornik znanstvenih razprav
• Shortened title: Zb. znan. razpr.
• Publisher: Pravna fakulteta
• ISSN: 1854-3839
• COBISS.SI-ID: 223437312

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Title: Evropska unija po krizi: tveganja in priložnosti – problema "neprijetnega spoznanja" in "institucionalne pozabljivosti"

Abstract

Kriza, ki sta jo povzročili vojna v Ukrajini in pandemija covida-19, je najresnejši izziv za Evropo po drugi svetovni vojni. Stopnja ogroženosti evropske varnosti zaradi krize je brez primere. Ni mogoče napovedati, kdaj in kako se bo kriza končala. Vendar ne glede na njen konec pa ni dvoma, da bo Evropi povzorčila stroške v višini več sto milijard, če ne celo nekaj tisoč milijard evrov, torej bo resno škodila in oslabila evropsko gospodarstvo ter ogrozila položaj Evrope kot svetovne gospodarske sile. Posledice se bodo kazale tudi v korenitih spremembah mednarodnih gospodarskih in političnih odnosov. Za Evropsko unijo bi moralo biti iskanje in oblikovanje racionalnih ter učinkovitih rešitev za uspešno politično in ekonomsko obvladovanje posledic krize prednostno, in sicer takoj za neverjetno zahtevnimi prizadevanji za obvladovanje sedanje krize. Pandemija covida-19 in vojna v Ukrajini sta EU presenetili. Evropa bi se morala taki izkušnji v prihodnje izogniti. Ne glede na to, kako se bo ta kriza končala, bo treba za obvladovanje njenih posledic ter prepoznavanje zadevnih tveganj in priložnosti EU začeti ugotavljati, kdo je imel od krize največjo korist. To ne bo mogoče z omejevanjem aktivnosti na tekoče posle, kot so iskanje novih dobaviteljev surovin in energije, harmonizacija fiskalnih pravil, zagotavljanje potrebnih sredstev za obvladovanje finančne krize itd. Za iskanje rešitev za trajnostni mir v Evropi bo potreben veliko širši vizionarski pristop. Izogibati se je treba izidu, kot je Versajska pogodba. Treba je preprečiti, da bi današnji "zaspanci", torej tisti, ki ignorirajo "neprijetna spoznanja", dopustili, da Evropa zdrsne v tretjo svetovno vojno. EU bi morala vsem svojim članicam jasno sporočiti, da je za Evropo "evropska solidarnost" z vsemi svojimi lastnostmi jedro resničnih interesov EU, vključno z interesi varnosti in obrambe. To bo zahtevalo tudi spremembe v Pogodbi o EU in Pogodbi o delovanju EU, obravnavane v prispevku. Če tega ne bo, EU in njene Članice nikoli ne bodo dosegle statusa "enakopravnih živali" v globalnem smislu – se pravi, da ne bodo postale resnično suverene in neodvisne.

• Keywords: Evropska unija, NATO, covid-19, Ukrajina, skupna zunanja in varnostna politika, finančna kriza