Stroški in napake v anketi Turistična potovanja domačega prebivalstva

Bučar, Nataša (author), Vehovar, Vasja (mentor), Seljak, Rudolf (co-mentor)

Stroški izvedbe ankete (statističnega raziskovanja) so pogosto odločilni dejavnik pri izboru načrta raziskovanja, hkrati pa zanje nimamo veliko razdelanih instrumentov za obravnavo, vsaj če primerjamo z napakami v anketi, ki so v statistični stroki zelo podrobno razdelane. Stroški ankete omejijo nabor raziskovalnih načrtov in velikost vzorca, zato pomembno prispevajo tudi k tveganju za nastanek anketnih napak. V magistrskem delu obravnavamo problem povezovanja stroškov in napak na primeru ankete Turistična potovanja domačega prebivalstva, ki jo izvaja Statistični urad Republike Slovenije (SURS). SURS je za referenčno obdobje 3. četrtletje 2021 podatke o turističnih potovanjih zbiral na dveh neodvisnih vzorcih. Poleg z rednim kombiniranim spletnim in telefonskim načinom je podatke zbiral tudi na neodvisnem vzorcu, in sicer z računalniško podprtim osebnim anketiranjem na terenu. V magistrskem delu smo analizirali razlike v točnosti anketnih ocen, hkrati pa smo izračunali tudi stroške izvedbe obeh anket. Na tej osnovi smo ocenili, kateri raziskovalni načrt ima nižjo relativno srednjo kvadratno napako (rMSE), ki je običajno merilo za točnost ocen znotraj predpostavljene fiksne stroškovne omejitve. Ker ima vsaka statistika drugačno vrednost rMSE, smo analizo izvedli na naboru petih ključnih ciljnih spremenljivk obravnavane ankete. Kjer za ključne statistike nimamo znane prave populacijske vrednosti, smo relativno srednjo kvadratno napako izračunali s pomočjo simulacij. Dodatno smo rMSE izračunali še za tri statistike, za katere je obstajala primerljiva registrska populacijska vrednost. Cilj magistrskega dela je bil torej ugotoviti razlike v točnosti ocen, zbranih s kombiniranim, spletnim in telefonskim anketiranjem ter neodvisnim enonačinskim, terenskim anketiranjem v statističnem raziskovanju Turistična potovanja domačega prebivalstva; izdelati model za oceno stroškov primerjanih raziskovalnih načrtov in poiskati optimalni raziskovalni načrt, glede na stroške in točnost ocen. S primerjavo vzorčnih ocen obeh raziskovalnih načrtov smo ugotovili, da je razlika, pri štirih od petih, obravnavanih ključnih statistik statistično značilna. Pri treh statistikah, kjer imamo zunanjo populacijsko vrednost iz registra, se je pri vseh treh za bolj točno oceno izkazala vzorčna ocena kombiniranega načrta. Z oceno stroškov smo ugotovili, da so stroški izvedbe kombiniranega, spletnega in telefonskega, raziskovanja na enoto izpolnjenega vprašalnika nižji kot stroški enonačinskega, terenskega raziskovanja. S primerjavo rezultatov vseh osmih obravnavanih statistik smo ugotovili, da je na podlagi naših kriterijev bolj primeren kombiniran raziskovalni načrt.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: relativna srednja kvadratna napaka, stroški raziskovanja, kombinirani načini zbiranja podatkov, anketne napake
• Work type: Master's thesis/paper
• Organization: FE - Faculty of Electrical Engineering
• Year: 2022
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-143434
• COBISS.SI-ID: 134855171
• Publication date in RUL: 20.12.2022

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Costs and errors in survey Tourism Travels of Domestic Population

Abstract

The costs of conducting a statistical survey are often a decisive factor in selecting a survey design, but at the same time we do not have many elaborated instruments for dealing with them, at least compared to errors in the survey. The costs of the survey limit the range of survey designs and the sample size, therefore they also contribute significantly to the risk of survey errors which are elaborated in great detail in the statistical profession. The Master's thesis discusses the problem of linking costs and errors on the example of the survey Tourism Travels of Domestic Population, which is conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (SURS). For the reference period of the 3rd quarter of 2021, SURS collected data on tourist trips from two independent samples, in addition to the regular web and telephone mixed-mode data collection, it also collected data from an independent sample, through computer assisted personal interviewing. The Master's thesis analyses the differences in the accuracy of survey estimates and presents the costs of conducting both surveys. I calculated which sample design has the lowest relative mean squared error (rMSE), a common measure of estimation accuracy, within an assumed fixed cost limits. Since each statistic has a different rMSE, I analyzed rMSE on a set of five key target variables. Since I do not know the true population value for the key statistics, we calculated the relative mean squared error using simulations. In addition, I calculated the rMSE for three statistics for which there is a comparable registry population value. The aim of this Master's thesis is to determine the differences in the accuracy of estimates collected through mixed-mode, web and telephone, survey and independent face-to-face survey in the statistical survey Tourism Travels of Domestic Population, to create a model for estimating costs of compared sample designs and to find the optimal sample design, according to the costs and accuracy of the estimates. By comparing the estimates, I find that the difference between the key statistics of the two survey designs is statistically significant in four of the five considered key statistics. In the case of three statistics, where we have an external population value from the register, a mixed-mode design is more accurate assessment in all of them. By evaluating the costs, I find that the total costs of conducting the mixed-mode survey per completed questionnaire unit were lower in mixed-mode design than in face-to-face design. With comparison of the results of all eight considered statistics, I evalauted the mixed-mode design as the more appropriate.

• Keywords: relative mean squared error, survey costs, mixed-mode data collection mode, survey errors