Pregled razvoja trga s hmeljem (Humulus lupulus) med leti 1990-2020

Razboršek, Špela (author), Udovč, Andrej (mentor)

Ponudba hmelja je odvisna od pridelovalnih površin, rastnih razmer in gojene sorte, povpraševanje po hmelju pa je odvisno od količine proizvedenega piva, stopnje uporabe hmelja, pivovarskih trendov, zaloge hmelja pri trgovcih in pivovarjih ter ravni tehnologije pivovarn. V diplomskem delu je analiziran hmeljski trg v letih 1990–2020. Prvo obdobje, od leta 1990 do 2006, zaznamuje stalna rast povpraševanja po hmeljnih grenčicah, medtem ko ponudba le-teh niha zaradi vremenskih vplivov, zato je opaženo izrazito neelastično povpraševanje s spremenljivo ponudbo, ki se kaže v pomanjkanju in presežku hmelja v vseh letih. Ponudba v letih 2004 in 2006 je bila zaradi hude poletne suše zelo nizka, trg je občutil velik primanjkljaj hmelja, zato so cene na trgu narasle, povpraševanje pa se je rekordno povečalo. V letih 2009–2012 se je na trgu pojavil presežek hmeljnih grenčic, v tem času je prišlo tudi do svetovne gospodarske krize. Ponudba se je med temi leti znižala, kar je deloma tudi posledica zmanjševanja velikosti skupnih pridelovalnih površin. Leta 2013 se je zgodil preobrat v povpraševanju po hmeljnih grenčicah, kar sovpada z naraščajočim razvojem industrije butičnih piv, ki se je začela v ZDA in se je po celem svetu razvila v novo prodajno nišo. Od leta 2013 do 2019 je sledilo obdobje večjega povpraševanja po alfa kislinah, kot je bilo ponudbe na trgu. V letu 2020 je zaradi pandemije Covida-19 proizvodnja piva drastično padla, svetovne površine hmeljišč v uporabi pa so se v nasprotju s pričakovanji še povečale, kar za gibanje cen hmelja v kratko- do srednjeročnem obdobju lahko pomeni presežek ponudbe in nižje odkupne cene hmelja.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: Hmelj, hmeljski trg, dejavniki ponudbe, dejavniki povpraševanja
• Work type: Bachelor thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Year: 2022
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-141070
• COBISS.SI-ID: 125969155
• Publication date in RUL: 23.09.2022

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Overview of hops (Humulus lupulus L.) market development between 1990-2020

Abstract

The supply of hops depends on the cultivated area, growing conditions and cultivated variety, while the demand for hops depends on the amount of produced beer, the level of hop use, brewing trends, the stock of hops at retailers and brewers, and the level of brewing technology. The thesis analyzes the hops market in the years 1990–2020. The first period, from 1990 to 2006, is characterized by a constant demand for hop bitters, while their supply fluctuates due to weather influences, so a markedly inelastic demand with a variable supply is observed, which is manifested in a shortage and surplus of hops in all years. The supply in 2004 and 2006 was very low due to the severe summer droughts, the market experienced a large shortage of hops, so the market prices rose, and the demand increased to a record. In the years 2009-2012, a surplus of hop bitters appeared on the market, during which time the global economic crisis also occurred. The supply has decreased during these years, which is partly also a result of the reduction in the size of the total cultivation areas. 2013 saw a turnaround in demand for hoppy bitters, coinciding with the growing development of the boutique beer industry, which began in the US and has evolved into a new niche market worldwide. From 2013-2019, there was a period of higher demand for alpha acids than there was supply in the market. In 2020, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the production of beer fell drastically, and the global surface area of hops in use increased, contrary to expectations, which for the movement of hop prices in the short to medium term may mean an excess of supply and lower purchase prices of hops.

• Keywords: Hops, hop market, hop demand, hop supply