The impact of climate change on urban thermal environment dynamics

Žiberna, Igor (author), Pipenbaher, Nataša (author), Donša, Daša (author), Škornik, Sonja (author), Kaligarič, Mitja (author), Kajfež-Bogataj, Lučka (author), Črepinšek, Zalika (author), Grujić, Veno Jaša (author), Ivajnšič, Danijel (author)

The human population is increasing. The ongoing urbanization process, in conjunction with climate change, is causing larger environmental footprints. Consequently, quality of life in urban systems worldwide is under immense pressure. Here, the seasonal characteristics of Maribor's urban thermal environment were studied from the perspectives of surface urban heat island (SUHI) and urban heat island (UHI) A remote sensing thermal imagery time series and in-situ measurements (stationary and mobile) were combined with select geospatial predictor variables to model this atmospheric phenomenon in its most intensive season (summer). Finally, CMIP6 climate change scenarios and models were considered, to predict future UHI intensity. Results indicate that Maribor's UHI intensity maximum shifted from winter to spring and summer. The implemented generalized additive model (GAM) underestimates UHI intensity in some built-up parts of the study area and overestimates UHI intensity in green vegetated areas. However, by the end of the century, UHI magnitude could increase by more than 60% in the southern industrial part of the city. Such studies are of particular concern, in regards to the increasing frequency of heat waves due to climate change, which further increases the (already present) heat stress in cities across the globe.

• Language: English
• Keywords: urbanization, urban heat island, summer heat stress, GAM, CMIP6, UHI
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: BF - Biotechnical Faculty
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2021
• Number of pages: 14 str.
• Numbering: Vol. 12, iss. 9, art. 1159
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-136109
• UDC: 502.3:504.7:502.5:551.58
• ISSN on article: 2073-4433
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos12091159
• COBISS.SI-ID: 75887619
• Publication date in RUL: 13.04.2022

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Atmosphere
• Shortened title: Atmosphere
• Publisher: MDPI
• ISSN: 2073-4433
• COBISS.SI-ID: 522992153

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
• Licensing start date: 09.09.2021

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: urbanizacija, mestni toplotni otoki, poletni vročinski stres, GAM, CMIP6