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Determination of empirical rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in Slovenia using an automatic tool
ID
Debevec Jordanova, Galena
(
Author
),
ID
Gariano, Stefano Luigi
(
Author
),
ID
Melillo, Massimo
(
Author
),
ID
Peruccacci, Silvia
(
Author
),
ID
Brunetti, Maria Teresa
(
Author
),
ID
Jemec Auflič, Mateja
(
Author
)
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https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/5/1449
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Abstract
Rainfall-triggered shallow landslides represent a major threat to people and infrastructure worldwide. Predicting the possibility of a landslide occurrence accurately means understanding the trigger mechanisms adequately. Rainfall is the main cause of slope failures in Slovenia, and rainfall thresholds are among the most-used tools to predict the possible occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides. The recent validation of the prototype landslide early system in Slovenia highlighted the need to define new reliable rainfall thresholds. In this study, several empirical thresholds are determined using an automatic tool. The thresholds are represented by a power law curve that links the cumulated event rainfall (E, in mm) with the duration of the rainfall event (D, in h). By eliminating all subjective criteria thanks to the automated calculation, thresholds at diverse non-exceedance probabilities are defined and validated, and the uncertainties associated with their parameters are estimated. Additional thresholds are also calculated for two different environmental classifications. The first classification is based on mean annual rainfall (MAR) with the national territory divided into three classes. The area with the highest MAR has the highest thresholds, which indicates a likely adaptation of the landscape to higher amounts of rainfall. The second classification is based on four lithological units. Two-thirds of the considered landslides occur in the unit of any type of clastic sedimentary rocks, which proves an influence of the lithology on the occurrence of shallow landslides. Sedimentary rocks that are prone to weathering have the lowest thresholds, while magmatic and metamorphic rocks have the highest thresholds. Thresholds obtained for both classifications are far less reliable due to the low number of empirical points and can only be used as indicators of rainfall conditions for each of the classes. Finally, the new national thresholds for Slovenia are also compared with other regional, national, and global thresholds. The thresholds can be used to define probabilistic schemes aiming at the operative prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Slovenia, in the framework of the Slovenian prototype early warning system.
Language:
English
Keywords:
rainfall thresholds calculation
,
mean annual rainfall
,
lithology
,
Slovenia
Work type:
Article
Typology:
1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:
NTF - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Engineering
Publication status:
Published
Publication version:
Version of Record
Year:
2020
Number of pages:
15 str.
Numbering:
Vol. 12, iss. 5, art. 1449
PID:
20.500.12556/RUL-133678
UDC:
55
ISSN on article:
2073-4441
DOI:
10.3390/w12051449
COBISS.SI-ID:
16110083
Publication date in RUL:
08.12.2021
Views:
569
Downloads:
132
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Record is a part of a journal
Title:
Water
Shortened title:
Water
Publisher:
Molecular Diversity Preservation International - MDPI
ISSN:
2073-4441
COBISS.SI-ID:
36731653
Licences
License:
CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Link:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Description:
This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
Licensing start date:
19.05.2020
Projects
Funder:
ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
Funding programme:
Young researchers
Funder:
ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
Project number:
P1-0195
Name:
Geookolje in geomateriali
Funder:
Other - Other funder or multiple funders
Funding programme:
Slovenia, Administration for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief
Acronym:
Masprem
Funder:
Other - Other funder or multiple funders
Funding programme:
Slovenia, Ministry for Defense
Acronym:
Masprem
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