Primerjalna analiza epidemiološke uspešnosti vladnih ukrepov v času Covid-19 : magistrsko delo

Domanjko, Žan (author), Todorovski, Ljupčo (mentor)

Namen magistrskega dela je razumeti razlike med epidemiološko uspešnostjo ukrepov za zajezitev Covid-19 v različnih državah in ugotoviti nabor dejavnikov, ki pojasnijo te razlike. Zato smo razvili ogrodje za analizo uspešnosti ukrepov, ki sloni na primerjalni analizi opazovanih epidemioloških podatkov. Uporabili smo ga za enostavno primerjavo podatkov v 133 državah z vseh celin, med katerimi je 41 evropskih držav. Nadalje smo predstavili rezultate podrobne primerjave epidemioloških ukrepov v enajstih evropskih državah izbranih na osnovi različnih evropskih socialnih modelov. Našo raziskavo smo izvedli s pomočjo Spearmanove korelacijske analize nad dejavniki, ki vplivajo na epidemiološko uspešnost ukrepov (število umrlih in okuženih s Covid-19, število ukrepov, uspešnost glede na gostoto prebivalstva idr.). Za končno analizo posameznih sprejetih epidemioloških ukrepov smo nato uporabili še izračune njihovih vplivov na trende uspešnosti po zastavljeni petstopenjski lestvici. V raziskavi ugotavljamo, da pri uspešnosti vladnih epidemioloških ukrepov igra pomembno vlogo zaupanje državljanov v javne institucije. Posledično so v državah z visokim zaupanjem pogosto zelo uspešni že preventivni (epidemiološki) ukrepi. Na našem naboru podatkov ugotavljamo tudi, da epidemiološka uspešnost ni odvisna od gostote prebivalstva in števila sprejetih epidemioloških ukrepov v državi. Potrdimo lahko, da epidemiološki ukrepi niso vsi enako uspešni in da so enaki ukrepi bolj uspešni v državah z višjim zaupanjem v javne institucije. Odločevalcem je tako na voljo orodje za analizo sprejetih epidemioloških ukrepov, ki jih lahko nato enostavno primerjajo glede na predstavnike sorodnega evropskega socialnega modela. Izdelano orodje ponuja dejavnike, na katere morajo biti pozorni, da bi srednjeročno povečali zaupanje v javne institucije ter tako še izboljšali uspešnost države pri prebijanju skozi epidemijo tega ali katerega od prihodnjih virusov. Državljanom pa raziskava ponuja odgovor, kako dobro so se v epidemiji odrezali njihovi odločevalci in ali so opravičili njihovo zaupanje.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: Epidemija Covid-19, Ukrepi za zajezitev epidemije, Epidemiološka uspešnost ukrepov, Zaupanje v javne institucije, Evropski socialni modeli
• Work type: Master's thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
• Organization: FU - Faculty of Administration
• Place of publishing: Ljubljana
• Publisher: [Ž. Domanjko]
• Year: 2021
• Number of pages: XII, 96 str.
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-129813
• UDC: 351:616-036.22:616.98:578.834
• COBISS.SI-ID: 76301315

Note

Prešernova nagrada Fakultete za upravo - podelitev 8. 3. 2022 za magistrsko delo, mentor: prof. dr. Ljupčo Todorovski

• Publication date in RUL: 08.09.2021

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Comparative analysis of the epidemiological success of government interventions during Covid-19

Abstract

The purpose of this Master's thesis is to understand the differences in the epidemiological success of the measures for mitigating the Covid-19 epidemics in various countries and identify factors that explain the differences. To this end, we design a framework for the analysis of the government interventions’ success from epidemiological data. The analysis is based on a basic comparison of the epidemiological data from 133 countries worldwide, including 41 European countries. We also perform a more advanced, detailed comparison of data on government interventions in eleven European countries selected with resect to different European social models. Our research was conducted using Spearman’s correlation analysis using the factors influencing the epidemiological success of measures (number of deceased and infected by Covid-19, number of measures, population density, etc.). For the final analysis of the individual adopted government interventions, we have used the calculations of the interventions’ impact on the trends of epidemiological performance using a predefined five-level scale. The research finds that the trust of the people towards their public, governmental institutions has a very large impact on the success of the governments’ interventions. Consequently, in all the countries with high trust, simple preventive measures show high rates of success. Our analysis also shows that the success of the epidemiological measures does not depend nor is connected on the density of population nor the number of interventions in a country. We can finally confirm that not all measures are equally successful and that the same measures are more successful in countries with a higher trust in public institutions. The Master thesis gives the decision-makers a tool they can use to analyze their epidemiological interventions and simply compare them with the suitable representative from the European social models. The developed tool identifies elements that must be taken into account to increase the trust of the people to the public institutions in the medium term, and hence help improve the country’s performance to overcome the epidemic of this or any other new viruses that may appear in the future. To the citizens, the tool offers an answer on how well the decision-makers in their country performed and whether they have justified their trust.

• Keywords: Covid-19 epidemic, Government interventions during Covid-19 epidemic, Epidemiological success of government interventions, Trust of the people to the public institutions, European social models