Časovna analiza poteka epidemije COVID-19 v Sloveniji : diplomsko delo

Ulčnik, Tjaša (author), Žibert, Janez (mentor), Kamenšek, Tina (comentor), Fošnarič, Miha (reviewer)

Uvod: V decembru 2019 je na Kitajskem prišlo do izbruha novega virusa SARS-CoV-2, ki se je v začetku marca 2020 prvič pojavil tudi v Sloveniji. Namen: Želeli smo prikazati dinamiko epidemije in poiskati prelomne točke na posameznih časovnih krivuljah, ki so se spremljale v povezavi z epidemijo COVID-19 v Sloveniji, in na ta način določiti ključne elemente, ki so vplivali na potek epidemije COVID-19 v Sloveniji. Metode dela: Za potrebe teoretičnega dela smo pregledali obstoječo domačo in tujo literaturo v podatkovnih bazah, publicistične objave in druge strokovne spletne strani, del literature smo iskali tudi po metodi snežne kepe. Za izvedbo empirične raziskave smo podatke za enoletno obdobje od marca 2020 do marca 2021 pridobili s spletne strani COVID-19 Sledilnik, s pomočjo vladne spletne strani GOV.SI smo zbrali sprejete varovalne ukrepe, iz poročil podjetja Google podatke o mobilnosti ljudi, z Ministrstva za zdravje pa smo prejeli dopise o metodologiji testiranja. Na podlagi prosto dostopnih podatkov smo izdelali grafe epidemioloških krivulj in krivulj mobilnosti, jih opisali, na njih določili prelomne točke in slednje nato zbrali na skupnih časovnicah, ki so nam omogočile natančnejšo analizo dobljenih rezultatov in prikazale zgostitve ter razredčitve prelomov krivulj. Vključili smo tudi datume sprejetja varovalnih ukrepov in sprememb v metodologiji testiranja. Rezultati: Ugotovili smo, da je krivulja ostajanja doma ravno obratna krivulji opravkov in delovne mobilnosti, kajti več kot so ljudje ostajali doma, manj je bilo opravkov in odhodov na delo. Po preklicu epidemije se je življenje skoraj vrnilo na normalo, jeseni je sledil drugi val, ki je bil po številu okuženih, hospitaliziranih in umrlih številčnejši. Pokazal se je vpliv skupka vladnih ukrepov, vezanih predvsem na omejevanje števila kontaktov in na samozaščitno vedenje, ki so pomembno vplivali na hitrost širjenja okužbe v populaciji. Izkazalo se je, da se je začasna omilitev nekaterih ukrepov in posledično večje medsebojno druženje odrazilo s porastom števila potrjeno okuženih. Po novem letu je glede na potek krivulje potrjeno okuženih že viden vpliv cepljenja. Razprava in zaključek: Ugotovili smo, da so se ljudje v prvem valu bolj odzvali na resnost situacije in v večji meri upoštevali veljavne ukrepe v primerjavi z drugim valom.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: diplomska dela, zdravstvena nega, SARS-CoV-2, ukrepi, prelomne točke, časovne vrste, javno zdravje
• Work type: Bachelor thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
• Organization: ZF - Faculty of Health Sciences
• Place of publishing: Ljubljana
• Publisher: [T. Ulčnik]
• Year: 2021
• Number of pages: 65 str., [12] str. pril.
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-129202
• UDC: 616-083
• COBISS.SI-ID: 74499075
• Publication date in RUL: 29.08.2021

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Time analysis of COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia : diploma work

Abstract

Introduction: In December 2019 there was an outbreak of a new virus called SARS-CoV-2 which was first noticed in Slovenia in March 2020. Purpose: We wanted to present the epidemic dynamics and find the breaking points on individual time curves connected with the COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia, and thus determine the key elements that influenced the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia. Methods: For the theoretical part we studied Slovenian and foreign literature in databases, newspaper articles and other professional websites but literature was partly searched also with a snowball method. For the empirical research we obtained information between March 2020 and March 2021 from the COVID-19 Sledilnik Website. Information on safety measures was received from governmental website GOV.SI, information on the mobility of people was found on Google and letters on the methodology of testing were sent from the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Slovenia. Based on freely available data, graphs of epidemiological curves and mobility curves were made. They were described, and the breaking points were indicated and collected in common timeline, creating a more accurate analysis of the received results and showing densifications and dilutions of curve breaks. Taking protective measures' dates and changes in testing methodology dates were included. Results: It was discovered that the stay at home curve was just the opposite of the chores and job mobility curve. The more people stayed at home, the less chores and leaving for work were noticed. After the end of epidemic life almost turned to normal, in winter, however, the second wave came with an even bigger number of the infected, hospitalized and dead. The government measures, mainly connected with social distancing and self-protective behaviour had a major impact on the speed of spreading the infection. It turned out that the temporary mitigation of some measures and consequently more socializing was reflected by the increase in the number of confirmed cases. In the beginning of the new year the curve of confirmed cases already showed the impact of vaccination. Discussion and conclusion: It was realised that in the first wave people responded to the seriousness of the situation and observed the valid measures more than in the second wave.

• Keywords: diploma theses, nursing care, SARS-CoV-2, measures, breaking points, time series, public health