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Analiza projektnih pretokov z upoštevanjem negotovosti : magistrsko delo št.: 70/II. VOI
Piry, Matevž (Author), Bezak, Nejc (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window, Šraj, Mojca (Co-mentor)

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Abstract
Projektni pretoki so z vidika inženirske hidrologije eni izmed pomembnejših vhodnih podatkov za potrebe dimenzioniranja in načrtovanja hidrotehničnih objektov. Pretočne vrednosti maksimalnih kot tudi minimalnih konic predstavljajo vhodne podatke pri analizah vplivov voda na okolje in človeka. Maksimalne konice potrebujemo pri zaščiti pred poplavami, minimalne konice pa za pravilno ukrepanje ob pojavu suše. V magistrskem delu smo z uporabo verjetnostnih analiz tako maksimalnih kot minimalnih konic, in s pomočjo treh različnih porazdelitvenih funkcij (generalizirane porazdelitve ekstremnih vrednosti, Pearsonove III porazdelitve in log-Pearsonove III porazdelitve) določali projektne pretoke za različne povratne dobe. Upoštevali smo tudi negotovosti, ter določili intervale zaupanja za posamezne porazdelitvene funkcije. Analiza je narejena za 179 vodomernih postaj v Sloveniji, ki so bile sicer s krajšim nizom podatkov v preteklosti že analizirane s strani ARSO. V magistrskem delu smo tako lahko ugotavljali tudi vpliv 8 let daljšega časovnega niza podatkov na vrednosti projektnih pretokov. Poleg primerjave rezultatov pa smo izračunali in empirično določili tudi nove mejne pretočne vrednosti za vsa porečja 1. nivoja, katere smo primerjali z različnimi empiričnimi enačbami, ki so bile že predlagane za slovenska porečja. Ugotovili smo, da 8 let daljši niz podatkov vpliva na projektne pretoke, saj se maksimalni pretoki v splošnem povečujejo (0,1-77 %), minimalni pa zmanjšujejo (0,3-96% ). Posamezne porazdelitvene funkcije ostajajo znotraj intervalov zaupanja. Rezultati kažejo, da daljše kot je časovno obdobje delovanja vodomerne postaje, manjši je faktor razlike med zgornjo in spodnjo mejo zaupanja. Ob primerjavi izračunanih projektnih pretokov ter vrednosti empiričnih enačb različnih avtorjev smo ugotovili, da se izračunani projektni pretoki v večini obravnavanih porečij ne približujejo vrednostim empiričnih enačb. Največji odkloni so prav pri porečjih z najmanjšimi prispevnimi površinami, za katere se v praksi empirične enačbe najpogosteje uporabljajo.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:gradbeništvo, magistrska dela, VOI, projektni pretoki, visokovodne konice, konice nizkih pretokov, negotovost, generalizirana porazdelitev ekstremnih vrednosti, Pearson III porazdelitev, logaritemska Pearson III porazdelitev
Work type:Master's thesis/paper (mb22)
Tipology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Year:2020
Publisher:[M. Piry]
Number of pages:XVI, 55 str., [64] str. pril
UDC:502/504:556.047/048(497.4)(043.3)
COBISS.SI-ID:45811203 This link opens in a new window
Views:390
Downloads:286
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Analysis of design discharge considering uncertainty : master thesis no.: 70/II. VOI
Abstract:
From the point of view of engineering hydrology, design discharge is one of the most important input data for the needs of dimensioning and planning of hydrotechnical structures. Both, maximum and minimum discharge values represent the input data in the analysis of the effects of water on the environment and human health. Maximum peaks are needed for flood protection, and minimum peaks for the proper action in case of drought. In the master thesis, we determined the design discharge for different return periods using probability analyzes of both maximum and minimum peaks, and three different distribution functions (generalized distributions of extreme values, Pearson III distributions, and log-Pearson III distributions). Uncertainties were also considered, and confidence intervals for individual distribution functions were determined. The analysis is performed for 179 water gauging stations in Slovenia, which have been already analyzed by ARSO in the past with a shorter set of data. In this thesis, we were able to determine the impact of an 8-year longer data set on the values of design discharge. In addition to comparing the results, we calculated and empirically determined the discharge limit values, which were compared with various empirical equations that have already been proposed for Slovenian river basins. We found that an 8-year longer data set affects design discharge, as maximum discharge generally increase (0,1-77 %) and minimum decrease(0,3-96 %). Individual distribution functions remain within confidence intervals. The results show that the longer the time period of operation of the water gauging station, the smaller the difference factor between the upper and lower confidence limit. When comparing the calculated design discharge and the values of empirical equations of different authors, we found that the calculated design discharge in most of the considered river basins do not approach the values of empirical equations. The largest deviations are in the river basins with the smallest catchment areas, for which empirical equations are most often used in practice.

Keywords:civil engineering, master thesis, design discharge, maximum peak discharge, minimum peak discharge, uncertainty, generalized extreme value distribution, Pearson III distribution, Log-Pearson III distribution

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