Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes
ID Celano, Francesca (Author), ID Dolšek, Matjaž (Author)

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URLURL - Source URL, Visit https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107287 This link opens in a new window
URLURL - Source URL, Visit https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107287 This link opens in a new window

The rapid expansion of the built environment has resulted in the coexistence of industrial facilities and urban centres. Following recent major earthquakes throughout the world, it has become clear that multi-hazard domino effects can significantly increase the risk of fatalities, environmental problems and losses. This complex phenomenon is not yet well understood. In this paper, the problem is treated by decomposing it into several subproblems which are described by simplified probabilistic models. These models are then coupled with the Monte Carlo method to estimate the annual probability of fatality for an individual who is continuously standing in a location of interest and to estimate fatality risk maps for an area of interest. Emphasis is placed on considering multi-hazard domino effects, which can be triggered within an industrial area due to the damage caused by earthquakes. Thus it is considered that fatalities can be caused: a) as a direct consequence of seismic damage to a unit b) as a direct physical and/or chemical consequence due to the loss of containment of hazardous material, and c) as a consequence of domino triggered by physical and chemical events such as fire, explosion, and toxic dispersion. The capabilities of the proposed methodology are demonstrated by calculating fatality risk maps for a hypothetical industrialized urban area. It is shown that disregarding multi-hazard domino effects in the estimation of fatality risk could lead to significant underestimation of the fatality risk in an industrialized urban area. Thus, it is necessary to account for multi-hazard domino effects. However, different teams of engineers can enhance the models for the probability of fatality due to various phenomena, which will improve the accuracy of the proposed methodology.

Keywords:civil engineering, construction, multi-hazard risk assessment, domino effects, fatality risk, industrialized urban area, seismic risk
Work type:Article
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Publication status in journal:Published
Article version:Postprint, final article version, accepted into publication
Submitted for review:07.02.2020
Article acceptance date:26.06.2020
Publication date:22.10.2020
Number of pages:Str. 1-17
Numbering:letn. 206, Št. 107287
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-122022 This link opens in a new window
ISSN on article:0951-8320
DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2020.107287 This link opens in a new window
COBISS.SI-ID:37393155 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:16.11.2020
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Reliability engineering & system safety
Shortened title:Reliab. eng. syst. saf.
COBISS.SI-ID:27385344 This link opens in a new window

Secondary language

Keywords:IKPIR 50let, gradbeništvo, konstrukcije, ocena tveganja številnih nevarnosti, verižni učinki, smrtno tveganje, industrijsko urbano območje, potresno tveganje


Funder:EC - European Commission
Project number:721816
Name:Extreme loading analysis of petrolchemicals plants and design of metamaterial-based shields for enhanced resilience

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