Povezanost modela potencialne uspešnosti s tekmovalno uspešnostjo kategorije U14 v alpskem smučanju : magistrsko delo

Šrimpf, Rok (author), Lešnik, Blaž (mentor)

Namen magistrskega dela je bil sestaviti novo baterijo modela potencialne uspešnosti za mlajše kategorije tekmovalcev alpskega smučanja v Sloveniji. V vzorec raziskave je bilo zajetih 36 tekmovalcev (dečkov) alpskega smučanja kategorije U14, ki so v sezoni 2019/2020 tekmovali na tekmovanjih za Veliko nagrado Nordica Dobermann. Vsi tekmovalci so se udeležili rednih letnih meritev na Fakulteti za šport v Ljubljani. Na podlagi rezultatov meritev, ki so zajemale enajst spremenljivk telesnih mer in sedemnajst spremenljivk gibalnih sposobnosti, smo s pomočjo ekspertnega sistema SMMS izdelali model potencialne uspešnosti (MPU), ki je bil sestavljen iz treh ravni. Najvišjo raven so predstavljale združene spremenljivke gibalnih sposobnosti in morfoloških značilnosti, dve nižji ravni pa so predstavljale spremenljivke gibalnih sposobnosti in morfoloških značilnosti ločeno. Rezultate MPU smo s Spearmanovim koeficientom primerjali z odvisno spremenljivko, ki so jo predstavljale točke, osvojene na tekmovanjih za Veliko nagrado Nordica Dobermann. Ugotavljali smo povezanost dejanske tekmovalne uspešnosti in ocen MPU na vseh treh ravneh. Statistična analiza podatkov je pokazala, da obstajajo statistično značilne povezave s tekmovalno uspešnostjo in ocenami MPU na vseh treh ravneh. Na najvišji ravni je ta znašala (r = 0,652), na ravni telesnih mer (r = 0,428) in na ravni gibalnih sposobnosti (r = 0,644). Vpliv najvišje ravni na osvojene točke je bil 41,6 %, ravni telesnih mer 21 % in na ravni gibalnih sposobnosti 40,8 %. Statistično značilne povezave so bile ugotovljene tudi pri povezanosti rangov MPU in rangov dejanske tekmovalne uspešnosti. Na najvišji ravni je znašala (r = 0,651), na ravni telesnih mer (r = 0,428) in na ravni gibalnih sposobnosti (r = 0,644). Najvišja raven je na končno uvrstitev vplivala s 35,9 %, raven telesnih mer 6,2 % in raven gibalnih sposobnosti 41,9 %.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: alpsko smučanje, mlajše kategorije, ekspertni sistem, tekmovalna uspešnost, model potencialne uspešnosti
• Work type: Master's thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
• Organization: FŠ - Faculty of Sport
• Year: 2020
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-117304
• COBISS.SI-ID: 23988227
• Publication date in RUL: 05.07.2020

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Correlation between potential success model and competitive success model of U14 alpine skiing category

Abstract

The aim of the thesis is to compose a new potential success model test battery for young categories of alpine skiing competitors in Slovenia. The research group included 36 boy competitors of U14 alpine skiing category who competed in the Nordica Dobermann Grand Prix 2019/2020. All competitors took part in regular annual testing at the Faculty of sports in Ljubljana. Based on the test results which included eleven physical measurement variables and seventeen motor skills variables the model of potential success was established by means of expert modelling (SMMS). The potential success model was composed of three different levels. The highest level included the combined variables of motor skills and morphology, whereas the lower levels included variables of motor skills and morphology separately. The results of potential success model were compared by the Spearman's correlation coefficient to the dependent variable i.e. points achieved at the Nordica Dobermann Grand Prix. The correlation between actual competitive success and assessments of potential success model was established at all three levels. Statistical analysis of data has shown that there are statistically typical correlations between competitive success and assessments of potential success model at all three levels. At the highest level the value was (rs = 0.652), at the level of physical measurements (rs = 0.428) and at the level of motor skills (rs = 0.644). The significance of the highest level to the achieved points was 41.6 %, the level of physical measurements 21 % and the level of motor skills 40.8 %. Statistically typical correlations were also established at the parallel between potential success model rank and actual competitive success rank. At the highest level the value was (rs = 0.651), at the level of physical measurements (rs = 0.428) and at the level of motor skills (rs = 0.644). Thus the highest level influenced the final ranking by 35.9 %, the level of physical measurements by 6.2 % and the level of motor skills by 41.9 %.

• Keywords: alpine skiing, young competitors, expert modelling, competitive success, potential success model