Implications of cattle trade for the spread and control of infectious diseases in Slovenia
ID Knific, Tanja (Author), ID Ocepek, Matjaž (Author), ID Kirbiš, Andrej (Author), ID Lentz, Hartmunt H.K. (Author)

URLURL - Source URL, Visit https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2019.00454/full This link opens in a new window

The objectives of this study were to gain insight into the structure of the cattle trade network in Slovenia and to evaluate the potential for infectious disease spread through movements. The study considered cattle movements between different types of premises that occurred between August 1, 2011 and July 31, 2016 with the exclusion of the movements to the end nodes (e.g., slaughterhouses). In the first part, we performed a static network analysis on monthly and yearly snapshots of the network. These time scales reflect our interest in slowly spreading pathogens; namely Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), which causes paratuberculosis, a worldwide economically important disease. The results showed consistency in the network measures over time; nevertheless, it was evident that year to year contacts between premises were changing. The importance of individual premises for the network connectedness was highly heterogeneous and the most influential premises in the network were collection centers, mountain pastures, and pastures. Compared to random node removal, targeted removal informed by ranking based on local network measures from previous years was substantially more effective in network disassociation. Inclusion of the latest movement data improved the results. In the second part, we simulated disease spread using a Susceptible-Infectious (SI) model on the temporal network. The SI model was based on the empirically estimated true prevalence of paratuberculosis in Slovenia and four scenarios for probabilities of transmission. Different probabilities were realized by the generation of new networks with the corresponding proportion of contacts which were randomly selected from the original network. These diluted networks served as substrates for simulation of MAP spread. The probability of transmission had a significant influence on the velocity of disease spread through the network. The peaks in daily incidence rates of infected herds were observed at the end of the grazing period. Our results suggest that network analysis may provide support in the optimization of paratuberculosis surveillance and intervention in Slovenia. The approach of simulating disease spread on a diluted network may also be used to model other transmission pathways between herds.

Keywords:Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis, paratuberculosis, epidemiology, cattle
Work type:Article
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:VF - Veterinary Faculty
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Number of pages:Str. 1-17
Numbering:Vol. 6, art. 454
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-116671 This link opens in a new window
ISSN on article:2297-1769
DOI:10.3389/fvets.2019.00454 This link opens in a new window
COBISS.SI-ID:4931450 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:02.06.2020
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Frontiers in veterinary science
Shortened title:Front. vet. sci.
Publisher:Frontiers Media S.A.
COBISS.SI-ID:3969402 This link opens in a new window


License:CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Description:This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
Licensing start date:02.06.2020


Funder:ARRS - Agencija za raziskovalno dejavnost Republike Slovenije
Project number:P4-0092
Name:Zdravje živali, okolje in varna hrana

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