Električna vozila v Sloveniji leta 2035 in njihov vpliv na izpuste CO2

Rigler, Andrej (author), Ogrin, Matej (mentor), Turk, Goran (comentor)

Magistrsko delo skuša oceniti, kolikšen bi lahko bil vpliv osebnih električnih vozil v Sloveniji leta 2035 na izpuste toplogrednih plinov in na energijo. V primeru, da bi vozila z motorji z notranjim izgorevanjem nadomestili z vozili z električnimi motorji, ki ne uporabljajo fosilnih goriv in v ozračje ne izpuščajo toplogrednih plinov, bi to lahko imelo zelo ugodne okoljske učinke. Velika verjetnost je namreč, da je človek zaradi uporabe fosilnih goriv odgovoren za velik dodaten delež toplogrednih plinov v ozračju, s tem pa tudi za neobičajno hitro segrevanje ozračja. Posledica so med drugim vse pogostejši ekstremni vremenski pojavi in njihov negativen vpliv na pokrajino. Velik del magistrskega dela je namenjen proučevanju rasti števila osebnih električnih vozil predvsem v Sloveniji in v Evropi. Glede na to, da je teh vozil še vedno relativno malo v vseh državah razen na Norveškem, skuša magistrsko delo oceniti, ali bo sploh prišlo do preboja električnih vozil na trg. Predpostavka je, da je množična uporaba električnih vozil na dolgi rok ena izmed najbolj pomembnih rešitev za spopadanje s podnebnimi spremembami. Na podlagi analize rasti števila osebnih električnih vozil v Sloveniji in v Evropi v zadnjem desetletju je bil cilj raziskave oceniti, kako hitra bo njihova rast do leta 2035. To leto je bilo izbrano, ker je dovolj oddaljeno, da bodo spremembe takrat že občutne, vendar hkrati ne toliko, da bi bila ugibanja prevelika.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: Električna vozila, baterijska električna vozila (BEV), priključna hibridna električna vozila (PHEV), energija, CO2, scenariji, Gompertzov model, linearna regresija.
• Work type: Master's thesis/paper
• Organization: FF - Faculty of Arts
• Year: 2019
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-111901
• Publication date in RUL: 17.10.2019

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Electric vehicles in Slovenia in 2035 and their impact on CO2 emissions and energy resources

Abstract

The purpose of the master's thesis was to assess the impact of passenger electric vehicles on greenhouse gas emissions and energy sources in Slovenia in the year 2035. If electric vehicles would replace vehicles with internal combustion engine they would have a positive impact on the landscape of which living things are part. It is very likely that due to the use of fossil fuels, human race is responsible for a large additional share of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and thus for extremely rapid warming of the atmosphere. The result is the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and their negative impact on the landscape. Large part of the master's thesis is dedicated to study the growth of the number of passenger electric vehicles primarily in Slovenia and Europe. Considering that there are still relatively few of these vehicles in all the countries except from Norway, the thesis is attempting to assess whether there will be market penetration of electric vehicles at all. The assumption is that long-term mass use of electric vehicles is one of the most important solutions to battling climate change. Based on the analysis of growth of passenger cars in Slovenia and Europe over the last decade, the aim of the study is to estimate how fast their growth will be by 2035. This year is chosen because it is distant enough for the changes to be already significant, but at the same time close enough so that the guessing would be too great.

• Keywords: Electric vehicles, Battery electric vehicles (BEV), Plug-in electric vehicles (PHEV), energy, CO2, scenarios, Gompertz model, linear regression.