Simulacija potresnega modela : delo diplomskega seminarja

Ognjanović, Špela (author), Prezelj, Jasna (mentor), Harej, Bor (co-mentor)

V delu predstavimo model izračuna pričakovane škode nastale po potresnem sunku. Obravnavamo potrese stopnje VI, VII, VIII in IX po EMS ter predpostavimo, da so njihove pojavitve med seboj neodvisne in porazdeljene z enakim porazdelitvenim zakonom, ki je odvisnen od stopnje in lokacije potresa. Pričakovano škodo računamo po regijah, zato je v vsaki regiji potrebno oceniti povprečen čas pojavitve med dvema potresoma in izračunati verjetnosti dogodka, da se potres v določeni regiji sploh zgodi, ali da se jih morebiti zgodi več hkrati. Število pojavitev potresov je odvisno tudi od dolžine obravnavenega obdobja. Poleg jakosti potresa na nastalo škodo vpliva struktura zgradb in leto gradnje. Vse stavbe na območju Slovenije smo razdelili v 6 ranljivostnih razredov, ki se med seboj razlikujejo po materialu nosilne konstrukcijo, ta pa določa njihovo potresno odpornost. Določiti je bilo potrebno delež stavb v vsakem ranljivostnem razredu, ki se poruši ob potresu določene intenzitete. Rezultate smo pustili izračunane v m^2, tako lahko v vsaki regiji določimo primerno denarno oceno pričakovane škode.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: potres, škoda, Poissonova porazdelitev, matematično modeliranje
• Work type: Final seminar paper
• Organization: FMF - Faculty of Mathematics and Physics
• Year: 2019
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-110392
• UDC: 519.2
• COBISS.SI-ID: 18817625
• Publication date in RUL: 14.09.2019

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Earthquake model simulation

Abstract

We present a model for calculating the expected damage caused by an earthquake. We consider earthquakes of levels VI, VII, VIII and IX according to the EMS and assume that their occurrences are mutually independent and follow the same distribution law, which depends on the level and location of the earthquake. Estimated damage is calculated by region, therefore in each region we have to estimate the average time between two earthquakes and to calculate the probabilities that one or more earthquakes would occur in a particular region. The number of earthquakes also depends on the length of the observation period. In addition to the magnitude of the earthquake, the damage caused is also affected by the structure of the buildings and the the year of construction. All buildings in the territory of Slovenia were divided into 6 vulnerability classes, according the material of the load-bearing structure, which determines their earthquake resistance. We determine the proportion of buildings in each vulnerability class which collapses upon an earthquake of given intensity intensity. We have left the results calculated in m^2, so we can determine an appropriate monetary estimate of the expected damage in each region.

• Keywords: earthquake, damage, Poisson distribution, mathematical modeling