Analiza zadetkov na svetovnem nogometnem prvenstvu v Rusiji 2018 : magistrsko delo

Pahor, Žiga (author), Vodičar, Janez (mentor), Pocrnjič, Marko (comentor)

Namen magistrskega dela je bil analizirati zadetke na svetovnem prvenstvu v Rusiji leta 2018 in odkriti njihove glavne značilnosti. Ugotavljali smo tudi pomembnost prvega zadetka, posesti žoge in povprečne pretečene razdalje posamezne reprezentance na prvenstvu. Rezultate analize smo primerjali s svetovnima prvenstvoma v Južni Afriki leta 2010 in v Braziliji leta 2014 ter poskušali ugotoviti razlike oziroma morebitne trende v načinu doseganja zadetkov. Odigranih je bilo 64 tekem, na katerih je bilo doseženih 169 zadetkov. S povprečjem 2,64 zadetka na tekmo se je prvenstvo zapisalo s tretjim najvišjim povprečjem za svetovnima prvenstvoma v Franciji leta 1998 in v Braziliji leta 2014. Posnetke zadetkov smo si večkrat natančno ogledali in beležili pogostost posamezne spremenljivke v predhodno pripravljene obrazce. Zbrane podatke smo s pomočjo programov Microsoft Excel in IBM SPSS Statistics 21 obdelali z osnovnimi postopki opisne statistike in pri nekaterih spremenljivkah iskali morebitne korelacije. Rezultate smo prikazali v grafični obliki in jih tudi ustrezno interpretirali. Z analizo smo prišli do naslednjih ugotovitev: - Največji delež zadetkov so dosegli napadalci (36,69 %), od tega z enim dotikom žoge (68,75 %), in sicer v obdobju od 46. do 60. minute (19,53 %). - Reprezentance so 43,20 % zadetkov dosegle po prekinitvah, kar velja za najvišji odstotek v zgodovini prvenstev v takšni obliki. Najučinkovitejše so bile podaje navzven (57,58 %) v sredino kazenskega prostora (51,52 %). Rekordno je bilo tudi število zadetkov doseženih iz enajstmetrovk (22). - Največ zadetkov je bilo doseženih iz oddaljenosti 5 do 11 metrov (36,09 %), iz sredine vrat (47,41 %) v dolgi vratarjev kot (41,48 %). Strelci so zadetke v 73,96 % primerih dosegali z nogo, od tega predvsem z desno (62,40 %) in pri tem najpogosteje uporabili udarec z notranjim delom stopala (29,30 %). - Reprezentanca, ki je na tekmi dosegla prvi zadetek, je tekmo v 73,01 % zmagala in v 92,06 % ni izgubila. - Največje število akcij za zadetek se je začelo v srednji tretjini (40,63 %), trajalo so 17 sekund in več (45,83 %) ter najpogosteje vključevale od 0 do 3 podaje (35,42 %). - Ugotovili smo statistično značilno visoko negativno povezanost (- 0,850) med končno uvrstitvijo na prvenstvu in povprečnim številom doseženih zadetkov na tekmo, srednjo povezanost (0,627) s povprečnim številom prejetih zadetkov na tekmo in srednjo povezanost (0,669) z učinkovitostjo strelov proti nasprotnikovim vratom.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: svetovno prvenstvo, nogomet, zadetki, analiza, reprezentance
• Work type: Master's thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.09 - Master's Thesis
• Organization: FŠ - Faculty of Sport
• Year: 2018
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-105048
• COBISS.SI-ID: 5445297
• Publication date in RUL: 23.10.2018

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Analysis of goals at the football world cup in Rusia 2018

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis was to analyse the goals scored at the 2018 FIFA World Cup (hereinafter WC) in Russia, as well as to determine their principal characteristics. We also tried to establish the importance of the first goal, possession of the ball and the average distance run by each national team at the WC. The results of our analysis were compared to those of 2010 WC in South Africa and of 2014 WC in Brazil, in order to determine the possible differences and/or trends in the manner of scoring goals. The number of matches played was 64, while the number of goals scored was 169. With an average of 2,64 goals per match, this WC boasts the third highest average after the 1998 WC in France and the 2014 WC in Brazil. The footages of goals scored were closely reviewed multiple times and the frequency of individual variables recorded in pre-arranged forms. The data gathered was then put through Microsoft Excel and IBM SPSS Statistics 21 programs and processed with basic procedures of descriptive statistics. We also tried to establish certain correlations between some of the variables. The results of the analysis were displayed and appropriately interpreted in graphical form. The analysis led us to the following conclusions: - The biggest share of goals was scored by forwards (36,69 %), with the first touch (68,75 %) in the period between the 46th and 60th minute (19,53 %). - National teams scored 43,20 % of the goals through set pieces, which is the highest percentage in the history of WC in the current format. Passes to the side of the field (57,58 %) and to the centre of the penalty box (51,52 %) proved to be the most effective. The number of goals scored from the penalty spot was also the highest in history (22). - Most of the goals were scored from a distance between 5 and 11 meters from the goal (36,09%), from the middle of the goal (47,41 %) to the far corner (41,48 %). 73,96 % of the goals were scored with a leg, usually the right one (62,40 %) with the most used shooting technique being with the instep (inside part of the foot) (29,30 %). - The national team which was the first to score was victorious in 73,01 % of the cases and did not lose in 92,06 % of the cases. - Most of the attacks were initiated in the middle third of the pitch (40,63 %) and lasted for 17 seconds or more (45,83 %), while including 0 to 3 passes (35,42 %). - The final placing in the WC showed a high negative correlation (- 0,850) with the average number of goals scored per match, a medium correlation (0,627) with the average number goals conceded per match and a medium correlation (0,669) with efficiency of shots on goal.

• Keywords: world Cup, football, goals, analysis, national teams