Analiza vpliva različnih scenarijev razvoja voznega parka v Sloveniji na izpuste CO2 s programom COPERT 5

Matoša, Martin (author), Katrašnik, Tomaž (mentor)

Zaključna naloga se osredotoča na analizo izpustov CO2, ki jih povzročajo vozila cestnega prometa v Sloveniji, z opravljeno projekcijo do leta 2030. Za analizo je bil uporabljen računalniški program COPERT 5 in njegova pripadajoča metodologija. Projekcija voznega parka je narejena v sklopu dveh scenarijev. Nični scenarij predvideva rast voznega parka glede v skladu s trendi predhodnih let. V scenariju 1, pa se predvideva povečana prodaja vozil, ki za gorivo uporabljajo stisnjen zemeljski plin (CNG). V rezultatih ničnega scenarija se izkaže, glede na izvedeno projekcijo, da bodo leta 2030 vozila cestnega prometa, ki so registrirana v Republiki Sloveniji, v zrak izpustila 6.593.488 ton ogljikovega dioksida. Scenarij 1 bi moral izkazati nižje izpuste CO2. Dejansko pa je količina izpustov CO2 ostala skoraj nespremenjena. Ugotovljena je bila pomanjkljivost programa COPERT 5 pri obravnavi plinskih alternativnih goriv, ki postavlja pod vprašaj vse rezultate analiz, ki so bile izdelane z omenjenim programom in osnovnimi nastavitvami ter so vključevale znatno povečanje vozil, ki uporabljajo plinska alternativna goriva.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: izpusti, ogljikov dioksid, COPERT, analiza, osebna vozila
• Work type: Bachelor thesis/paper
• Organization: FS - Faculty of Mechanical Engineering
• Year: 2017
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-95533
• Publication date in RUL: 20.09.2017

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Analysis of the impact of different scenarios of the vehicle fleet evolution in Slovenia to CO2 emissions with the COPERT 5 software

Abstract

The final thesis focuses on the analysis of CO2 emissions caused by road transport vehicles in Republic of Slovenia with a projection performed by year 2030. The COPERT 5 computer program and its associated methodology was used for the analysis. The fleet projection was done in two scenarios. The zero scenario assumes the growth of the fleet according to the trends of previous years. In scenario 1 an increase in sales of vehicles fuelled with compressed natural gas (CNG) is assumed. In the results of the zero scenario it turns out that road transport vehicles registered in the Republic of Slovenia will release 6.593.488 tonnes of carbon dioxide into the air in year 2030. Scenario 1 should show lower CO2 emissions. In fact, in scenario 1 CO2 emissions remained almost the same. A shortcoming of COPERT 5 program was found in the methodology of calculation of emissions when using gas alternative fuels, which calls into question all the results of analyses done under default settings that included a significant increase in vehicles using gas alternative fuels and were developed with the said program.

• Keywords: emissions, carbon dioxide, COPERT, analysis, passenger vehicles