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Upravljanje s tveganji in negotovostjo pri evalvaciji naložbenih odločitev v nepremičninskem sektorju : magistrsko delo
ID Rebol, Anton (Author), ID Šubic Kovač, Maruška (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window

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MD5: 11F91C2D4295ACC0C3386AC2EB1ECE24
PID: 20.500.12556/rul/0acfa4b3-36f8-425a-82ff-c77b2b26fe9b

Abstract
V magistrskem delu obravnavamo tri pomembne lastnosti nepremičninskih naložbenih projektov, in sicer nepovratnost nastalih stroškov, možnosti prilagodljivega pristopa k načrtovanju in upravljanje negotovosti skozi sposobnosti prepoznavanja naložbenih priložnosti oziroma prilagajanja spremembam na trgu. Dinamične metode vrednotenja ne upoštevajo dejstva, da se vzorec tveganja naložbenega projekta spreminja s časom, prav tako ne upoštevajo fleksibilnosti, ki nam jih tržišče ponuja s svojimi nihanji. Med začetkom in koncem naložbenega projekta je zato možnih veliko različnih izidov, ki jih s tradicionalnimi metodami ne zajamemo. Kot odgovor na pomanjkljivo vedenje o odločanju v razmerah negotove prihodnosti in s tem povezanega tveganja smo proučili teorijo realnih opcij, ki izhaja iz dobro poznanih finančnih opcij na finančnih trgih. Dinamični model vrednotenja smo v magistrskem delu nadgradili z različnimi modeli vrednotenja realnih opcij in pri vseh dobili dodatno opcijsko premijo, ki dokazuje, da ima naložbeni projekt ob danih predpostavkah potencial in možnosti za maksimizacijo koristi. Ugotovili smo, da ni dovolj, da je sedanja vrednost prihodnjih denarnih tokov pozitivna, ampak mora presegati stroške projekta za znesek, ki je enak vrednosti odprte naložbene opcije. Ugotovili smo, da metodološke osnove, ki jih podajajo realne opcije v osnovi spreminjajo temeljni pogled na tveganje in vrednotenje.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:gradbeništvo, magistrska dela, negotovost, fleksibilnost, nepovratnost, Wienerjev proces, Brownovo gibanje, realne opcije, naložbeni problem, Monte Carlo simulacija, binomski model, Black-Scholesov model, Samuelson-McKeanov model
Work type:Master's thesis
Typology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
Place of publishing:Ljubljana
Publisher:[A. Rebol]
Year:2016
Number of pages:XIII, 112 str.
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-86126 This link opens in a new window
UDC:332.6(043.3)
COBISS.SI-ID:7736929 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:09.11.2016
Views:3525
Downloads:542
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Risk management and uncertainty in evaluation of investment decisions in the real estate sector
Abstract:
In this thesis we deal with three important characteristics of real estate investment projects: the irreversibility of the incurred costs, the possibility of a flexible approach to planning and managing uncertainty through the ability of identifying investment opportunities and adapting to changes in the market. Dynamic evaluation methods do not take into account the fact that the pattern of risk in the investment project will change over time, nor it takes into account the flexibility provided by the market with its fluctuations. Between the beginning and the end of the investment project there is so many different possible outcomes, which traditional methods do not capture. In response to the lack of knowledge about decision making under conditions of uncertainty of the future and the associated risks, we examined the theory of real options, which derives from the well-known financial options on the financial markets. Dynamic evaluation model was in this thesis upgraded with different models of real options and by each we got the additional option premium, which proves that the investment project has under the current assumptions the potential and opportunity to maximize benefits. We have found that it is not enough that the present value of future cash flows is positive, but it should exceed the cost of the project for an amount equal to the value of open-ended investment options. We found out that the methodological bases that provide real options basically alter our fundamental views on risk and evaluation.

Keywords:civil engineering, master of science thesis, uncertainty, flexibility, irreversibility, Wiener process, Brownian motion, real options, investment problem, Monte Carlo simulation, binomial model, Black Scholes model, Samuelson McKean model

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