The cycle of increasing instability within the coalition government : the impact of the economic crisis in Slovenia in the period from 2008 to 2014

Zajc, Drago (author)

The research of coalition behaviour conducted in recent years has incorporated the dynamic approach which enables the study of the relationship between coalition behaviour and external events. The case study of Slovenia shows a close relationship between various economic events, such as the economic crisis and the destabilization of coalitions in the period from 2008 to 2014. The impact of economic indicators diminished the possibility of regular or strategic elections, and increased the likelihood of early elections or change of the coalition government without elections. The study also presents some additional factors of destabilization which could not be properly measured, such as the changes of support to the parties, conflicts among the coalition partners or within individual partner parties, or the policies of supranational organizations. Additionally, we observed that minimum winning coalitions with a greater number of partner parties represented a greater risk for the stability of coalition governments, while the left-wing coalitions were more likely to be dissolved than the right-wing. Such developments in Slovenia occurring during the economic crisis could be compared to those taking place in several other Central European (old and new democratic) countries.

• Language: English
• Work type: Not categorized
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FDV - Faculty of Social Sciences
• Year: 2015
• Number of pages: Str. 175-195, 307
• Numbering: Letn. 52, št. 1/2
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-85253
• UDC: 328.13:338.124.4(497.4)"2008/2014"
• ISSN on article: 0040-3598
• COBISS.SI-ID: 549631
• Publication date in RUL: 20.09.2016

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Teorija in praksa : revija za družbena vprašanja
• Shortened title: Teor. praksa
• Publisher: Fakulteta za družbene vede
• ISSN: 0040-3598
• COBISS.SI-ID: 763652

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian

Abstract

Raziskovanje koalicijskega obnašanja je v zadnjih letih vključilo dinamični pristop, ki omogoča ugotavljanje povezave med koalicijskim obnašanjem in različnimi zunanjimi dogodki. Z uporabo tega pristopa lahko na primeru Slovenije ugotavljamo povezanost med ekonomskimi dogodki, kot je gospodarska kriza, in destabilizacijo koalicij v obdobju 2008-2014. Vpliv ekonomskih pokazateljev je zmanjšal možnost rednih ali strateških volitev in povečal verjetnost padcev oz. zamenjav vlad na predčasnih volitvah ali celo brez volitev. Članek predstavi tudi nekaj dodatnih dejavnikov destabilizacije koalicijskih vlad, ki jih (vseh) ni mogoče ustrezno meriti, kot so spremembe v podpori strankam, konflikti med partnerskimi strankami ali znotraj posameznih strank in tudi politika nadnacionalnih organizacij. Dodatno smo ugotavljali, da so bile koalicije z večjim številom partnerskih strank izpostavljene večjim tveganjem in da je bila možnost razpustitve levosredinskih koalicij večja v primerjavi z desnosredinskimi. Takšno koalicijsko obnašanje strank v Sloveniji v obdobju gospodarske krize lahko primerjamo z destabilizacijo koalicijskih vlad v vrsti drugih demokratičnih (novih in starih) držav Srednje Evrope.