Ocenjevanje verjetnosti zmage favorita v različnih oblikah tekmovanj

FUJS, ROK (author), Štrumbelj, Erik (mentor)

Cilj diplomske naloge je bil oceniti verjetnosti favorita v različnih tekmovanjih in podati odgovor na vprašanje, katero tekmovanje je najboljše. Najboljše je tu smatrano kot tisto tekmovanje, ki poda najboljši rezultat z vidika verjetnosti, da bo zmagalo najboljše moštvo. Realizirani so turnirski sistemi liga, turnir na izpadanje in kombinirana tekmovanja. Implementirani so bili tudi različni načini določanja nasprotnikov: žreb, sistem za razvrščanje, sistem za ponovno razvrščanje in kakovostni bobni. Za realizacijo je bil uporabljen programski jezik Java. Na podlagi ustreznega števila zagnanih simualcij vseh turnirskih sistemov z različnimi parametri in ponekod različnimi načini določanja nasprotnikov smo pridobili dovolj dobre ocene, da napovemo verjetnosti posameznih turnirskih sistemov. Izkaže se, da je najboljše tekmovanje liga.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: Favorit, turnir, liga, simulacija
• Work type: Undergraduate thesis
• Organization: FRI - Faculty of Computer and Information Science
• Year: 2014
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-29970
• Publication date in RUL: 22.10.2014

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Estimating the favorite's win probability in different competition formats

Abstract

The goal of this thesis was to evaluate the probability of the favourite winning in different competitions and answer the question which competition is the best. The best in this case meaning the competition that gives the best team the highest chance of winning. Tournament systems that were realized are league, elimination tournament, and combined tournaments. Also implemented are different ways of determining opponents. These are draw, seeding, and re-seeding. Java was used as the programming language. On the basis of sufficient number of simulations run, we acquired estimations that are good enough to get a good idea of the probabilities of the favourite winning in various tournament systems. In the end, we conclude that the best competition is the league.

• Keywords: Favourite, tournament, league, simulation