Design of social infrastructure and services taking into account internal migration by age cohort

Drobne, Samo (author), Bogataj, Marija (author)

Background: European cities and regions are facing depopulation and an ageing population, leading to a shift in the demand and supply of goods and giving rise to the silver economy. This demographic change has an impact on urban and regional planning, which is influenced by both internal and external migration. Objectives: Based on the hypothesis that the attractiveness of locations also depends on the age of the inhabitants, the paper investigates the gravitational effects on the intensity of migration flows by age cohorts. Methods/Approach: This study examines how factors that influence the retention or attraction of people towards specific areas affect migration between age groups at different hierarchical spatial levels, using the gravity model implemented at the Slovenian spatial levels NUTS 2 and NUTS 3. Results: Distance is least important for the 65-74 age group, while wages influence only the youngest cohorts. The capacity of care homes has a significant influence on the attractiveness of older cohorts to move between NUTS 2 regions. There is a high correlation between the factors at the municipal and NUTS 3 levels for the population aged 75+. The factors at NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 levels show a strong correlation for those under 65. Conclusions: These results can form a basis for the development of the silver economy as they show the need for adapted infrastructures and services for older adults. As the age structure is changing, authorities should adapt infrastructures and services to the different levels of central places/regions. The growing number of older people makes research into optimal solutions for long-term care a crucial factor for the silver economy.

• Language: English
• Keywords: gravity model, infrastructure, attractiveness, demography, gerontology
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FGG - Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2024
• Number of pages: Str. 31-47
• Numbering: Vol. 15, no. 2
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-163387-4ef1ac81-ec52-5f6f-6dc2-07dec5ca567c
• UDC: 314.114
• ISSN on article: 1847-8344
• DOI: 10.2478/bsrj-2024-0016
• COBISS.SI-ID: 210387459
• Publication date in RUL: 07.10.2024

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Business systems research journal : international journal of the Society for Promotion of Business Information Technology (BIT)
• Publisher: Faculty of Economics and Business
• ISSN: 1847-8344
• COBISS.SI-ID: 19862758

Licences

• License: CC BY-NC 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
• Description: A creative commons license that bans commercial use, but the users don’t have to license their derivative works on the same terms.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian

Abstract

Ozadje: Evropska mesta in regije se soočajo z odseljevanjem in staranjem prebivalstva, kar povzroča spremembe v povpraševanju in ponudbi blaga in je povod za nastanek srebrnega gospodarstva. Te demografske spremembe vplivajo na urbanistično in regionalno načrtovanje, na katerega vplivajo notranje in zunanje selitve. Cilji: Na podlagi domneve, da je privlačnost lokacij odvisna tudi od starosti prebivalcev, članek raziskuje gravitacijske učinke na intenzivnost selitvenih tokov po starostnih kohortah. Metode/pristop: Študija preučuje, kako dejavniki, ki vplivajo na zadrževanje ali privlačnost ljudi na določena območja, vplivajo na selitve med starostnimi skupinami na različnih hierarhičnih prostorskih ravneh z uporabo gravitacijskega modela, izvedenega za prostorske ravni NUTS 2 in NUTS 3 v Sloveniji. Rezultati: Razdalja je najmanj pomembna za starostno skupino 65-74 let, medtem ko plače vplivajo le na najmlajše kohorte. Zmogljivost domov z a starejše pomembno vpliva na privlačnost starejših kohort za selitev med regijami NUTS 2. Med dejavniki na ravni občine in ravni NUTS 3 obstaja visoka korelacija za prebivalstvo, staro 75 let in več. Dejavniki na ravneh NUTS 2 in NUTS 3 kažejo močno povezanost za prebivalce, mlajše od 65 let. Zaključki: Ti rezultati so lahko podlaga za razvoj srebrnega gospodarstva, saj kažejo potrebo po prilagojeni infrastrukturi in storitvah za starejše odrasle. Ker se starostna struktura spreminja, bi morali organi prilagoditi infrastrukturo in storitve različnim ravnem osrednjih krajev/regij. Zaradi naraščajočega števila starejših so raziskave optimalnih rešitev za dolgotrajno oskrbo ključni dejavnik za srebrno gospodarstvo.

• Keywords: gravitacijski model, infrastruktura, privlačnost, demografija, gerontologija