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Kopule in upravljanje s tveganji : magistrsko delo
ID Durcik, Primož (Author), ID Košir, Tomaž (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window

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Abstract
Obstaja več načinov, kako lahko merimo stopnjo tveganja portfelja. Eden od teh načinov je s kopulami. V tej nalogi bomo spoznali kopule in pokazali razliko med izbiro različnih kopul pri upravljanju s tveganji. S testi za prileganje porazdelitev podatkom bomo videli, da se najbolje izkaže uporaba Studentove kopule. Tudi Gaussova kopula nakazuje sprejemljive rezultate, medtem ko nam da Gumbelova kopula nekoliko slabše rezultate. Pri analizi skupnega gibanja cen navzdol oziroma navzgor vidimo, da glede na Studentovo kopulo ostali dve podcenjujeta verjetnost, da bo prišlo do ekstremnih dogodkov. Pri analizi razpršitve portfelja pa se izkaže, da nam Gaussova kopula da bolj optimistične napovedi, Gumbelova pa bolj pesimistične v primerjavi s Studentovo kopulo.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:kopula, tveganje, odvisnost slučajnih spremenljivk, upravljanje s tveganji, Gaussova kopula, Studentova kopula, Gumbelova kopula
Work type:Master's thesis/paper
Typology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:FMF - Faculty of Mathematics and Physics
Year:2023
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-149756 This link opens in a new window
UDC:519.2
COBISS.SI-ID:163759363 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:09.09.2023
Views:266
Downloads:43
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Copulas and risk management
Abstract:
There are several ways to measure the portfolio risk. One of these ways is using copulas. In this article, we will learn about copulas and show the difference between choosing different copulas in risk management. With goodness-of-fit tests for distributions we will see that the use of Student's copula performs best. Gaussian copula also indicates acceptable results while Gumbel copula gives us worse results. When analyzing the joint extreme downward and upward movements, we see that according to Student's copula, the other two underestimate the probability that extreme events will occur. When analyzing portfolio diversification benefits, it turns out that the Gaussian copula gives more optimistic predictions, while Gumbel's gives more pessimistic predictions compared to the Student's copula.

Keywords:copula, risk, dependence of random variables, risk management, Gaussian copula, Student copula, Gumbel copula

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