Vpliv meteoroloških parametrov na pojavnost in intenziteto požarov v naravnem okolju na območju Mestne občine Ljubljana

Rajšp, Primož (author), Schnabl, Simon (mentor)

Diplomsko delo se osredotoča na povezavo pojavnosti in intenziteto požarov z meteorološkimi parametri na območju Mestne občine Ljubljana (MOL). Predstavljeni so podatki požarov v naravnem okolju in meteorološki parametri med leti 2013 in 2022. Požari v naravi postajo vse večji problem širom sveta, saj se zaradi podnebnih sprememb pogoji za razvoj in nastanek požarov izboljšujejo. Z analizo podatkov ter izračunom korelacijskih koeficientov smo prišli do ugotovitve, da meteorološki parametri vplivajo na pojavnost in intenziteto požarov v naravnem okolju. Nekateri meteorološki parametri (npr. število dni z relativno vlago pod 30 %, število dni z relativno vlago pod 50 % in trajanje sončnega obsevanja) bolj vplivajo na pojavnost in intenziteto požarov v naravnem okolju kot drugi (npr. število vročih dni in povprečna mesečna temperatura). Ob spremembi meteoroloških parametrov se spremeni tudi število in intenziteta požarov v naravnem okolju. Nakloni trendnih črt nekaterih meteorološki parametrov ob upoštevanju korelacijskih koeficientov, med številom požarov v naravnem okolju in meteorološkimi parametri, nakazujejo, da se bodo pogoji za razvoj požarov v naravnem okolju v prihodnjih letih izboljševali. Vsako leto se poveča količina sončnega obsevanja medtem ko se količina padavin zmanjšuje. Zaradi zmanjšanja količine padavin je vlage v tleh in rastlinah manj, ko pa k temu dodamo še sončno obsevanje pa se pogoji za razvoj sušnih obdobij in posledično pogoji za nastanek in razvoj požarov v naravnem okolju izboljšajo.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: požari v naravi, podnebne spremembe, požar, meteorološki parametri, požarna ogroženost
• Work type: Bachelor thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
• Organization: FKKT - Faculty of Chemistry and Chemical Technology
• Year: 2023
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-149318
• COBISS.SI-ID: 167972355
• Publication date in RUL: 06.09.2023

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: The influence of meteorological parameters on the incidence and intensity of fires in the natural environment in the area of ​​the Municipality of Ljubljana

Abstract

This thesis focuses on the correlation between wildfire occurrences, their intensity, and the meteorological parameters in the area of the Municipality of Ljubljana (MOL). The collected data shows the characteristics of wildfires and meteorological parameters between the years 2013 and 2022. Wildfires are increasingly becoming a serious problem throughout the world as climate change improves the conditions for fires to develop and ignite. The analysed data and the calculated correlation coefficients suggest that meteorological parameters do influence the occurrence and intensity of wildfires. Some meteorological parameters (such as the number of days with a relative humidity below 30%, the number of days with a relative humidity below 50%, and the duration of solar radiation) have a greater influence on the occurrence and intensity of wildfires than others (such as the number of hot days, and the average monthly temperature). If the meteorological parameters change, so does the number and the intensity of wildfires. Considering the correlation coefficients between the number of wildfires and the meteorological parameters, the slopes of the trend lines for some meteorological parameters, suggest that the conditions for the development of wildfires will improve in the coming years. The amount of solar radiation increases every year while the amount of precipitation decreases. Due to the decrease of rainfall, the moisture of soil and plants is reduced. In addition, the solar radiation increases every year, which altogether improves the overall conditions for dry spells, and consequently, the conditions for the ignition and development of wildfires.

• Keywords: wildfires, climate change, fire, meteorological parameters, fire risk