Data stream mining for predicting the thermal power consumption of the Mars Express spacecraft

Stevanoski, Bozhidar (author), Kocev, Dragi (author), Osojnik, Aljaž (author), Dimitrovski, Ivica (author), Džeroski, Sašo (author)

The Mars Express (MEX) spacecraft, operated by the European Space Agency (ESA), has been orbiting Mars for the past 18 years. During this period, it has provided unprecedented scientific data about the red planet, but it has also aged, and its batteries have degraded. Thus, MEX needs careful and accurate power modeling to continue its significant contribution without breaking, twisting, deforming, or failure of any equipment. The power consumed by the autonomous thermal subsystem, that keeps all equipment within its operating temperature in a difficult environment, is the only unknown variable in the spacecraft’s power budget. In this pilot study, we address the task of predicting the thermal power consumption (TPC) of MEX on all of its 33 thermal power lines, learning predictive models from the stream of its telemetry data, which is a task of multi-target regression on data streams. To analyze such data streams and to model the MEX power consumption, we consider both local and global approaches, i.e., predicting each target by a separate model and predicting all targets at once by a single model, respectively. Our evaluation of the considered approaches investigates their performance in predicting the MEX power consumption, the influence of the time resolution of the measurements of TPC on this performance, and the success of the methods in detecting and adapting to change.

• Language: English
• Keywords: data streams, multi-target regression, online ensembles, spacecraft operations, thermal power consumption
• Work type: Article
• Typology: 1.01 - Original Scientific Article
• Organization: FRI - Faculty of Computer and Information Science
• Publication status: Published
• Publication version: Version of Record
• Year: 2023
• Number of pages: Str. 411-427
• Numbering: Vol. 210
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-148273
• UDC: 629.7
• ISSN on article: 1879-2030
• DOI: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2023.04.037
• COBISS.SI-ID: 151198723
• Publication date in RUL: 09.08.2023

Record is a part of a journal

• Title: Acta astronautica
• Shortened title: Acta astronaut.
• Publisher: Elsevier, International Academy of Astronautics
• ISSN: 1879-2030
• COBISS.SI-ID: 98352387

Licences

• License: CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
• Link: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Description: This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: podatkovni tokovi, večciljna regresija, sprotno učenje ansamblov, upravljanje vesoljskih plovil, poraba energije termalnega sistema, planet Mars, raziskovanje Marsa, vesoljska plovila