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The role of precedence in coordination games
ID Voronina, Liubov (Author), ID Heintz, Christophe (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window

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Abstract
In pure coordination games, two anonymous players are presented with a set of equally attractive choice options. They both win if they choose an identical option. Otherwise, they both lose. Even in the absence of communication, players tend to concentrate their answers around some of the options at a rate significantly higher than chance. Such recognizable prominence of one alternative over another, that results in a stable solution, is called focal point or salience. There are two major theories that aim to explain the phenomenon of saliency. Cognitive hierarchy theory differentiates between primary (just picking) and secondary salience (guessing). In contrast, Schelling salience (coordinating) suggests that people look for the unique selection rule among many, that can single out a successful coordination strategy. Building on the logic of coordination games, David Lewis convincingly argued for the emergence of conventions. According to his account, observed behavioural regularities that are commonly known among the population, create accurate mutual expectations that facilitate coordination by providing unambiguous solutions to social coordination problems, resulting in stable equilibria. Thus, conventions emerge as solutions to coordination problems. We hypothesise that these behavioural regularities become salient by virtue of repeating precedence, which is used as Schelling salience, once the agents are confronted with the coordination problem. In this study we investigate how joint history shapes strategic decisions for the equilibrium choice in pure coordination games. In the games, which histories did not suggest a choice of any specific colour, we observed a significant improvement in coordination in the last round. Interestingly, the coordination index for this round did not significantly change between the conditions with and without joint history. Therefore the actual coordination rate exceeds the rate of the expected coordination, when the choices are made by the randomly paired participants. In the games, where a history of rounds nudged the choice of a given colour, we observed that this same colour tended to be chosen in the last round. This is how precedence determines coordination strategy. More precisely, people accurately predict that a winning strategy used in the past is mutually salient and can be successfully usedagain in similar situations. We demonstrate that precedence is strongly relied upon and provides insights into the psychological bases of the social processes through which conventions emerge. By investigating the path dependence of the individual behaviour in the context of coordination, we experimentally confirm that conventions emerge because people systematically rely on their past interactions in order to coordinate successfully.

Language:English
Keywords:Schelling salience, coordination games, joint history, path dependence, conventions
Work type:Master's thesis/paper
Typology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:PEF - Faculty of Education
Place of publishing:Ljubljana
Publisher:L. Voronina
Year:2023
Number of pages:61 str.
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-145310 This link opens in a new window
UDC:159.9(043.2)
COBISS.SI-ID:149435139 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:16.04.2023
Views:531
Downloads:37
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Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Title:Vloga zgodovine interakcij v igrah koordinacije : magistrsko delo
Abstract:
V igrah koordinacije imata dva anonimna igralca na izbiro nabor enako privlačnih možnosti. Oba igralca zmagata, če izbereta enako možnost, če se njuna izbira razlikuje, pa oba igralca izgubita. Tudi kadar igralci ne komunicirajo med seboj, jim uspe svoje odgovore opreti na določene možnosti, stopnja izbire teh možnosti pa je statistično značilno višja od golega naključja. Tako prepoznavna izbira ene možnosti nasproti drugim, ki privede do stabilne rešitve, se imenuje poudarjenost. Medtem ko teorija kognitivne hierarhije razlikuje med primarno poudarjenostjo (to je izbira po lastni presoji) in sekundarno poudarjenostjo (to je ugibanje igralca o tem, kaj si bo izbral drugi igralec), je Thomas Schelling trdil, da takrat, ko ljudje poskušajo uskladiti svoje izbire, iščejo neko pravilo, ki bi pomagalo izločiti eno samo uspešno koordinacijsko strategijo. David Lewis je s pomočjo iger koordinacije ponazoril nastanek konvencij v družbi. Po njegovem mnenju vedenjske zakonitosti, ki so splošno znane v populaciji, ustvarjajo natančna medsebojna pričakovanja. Takšna pričakovanja olajšajo usklajevanje z zagotavljanjem nedvoumnih rešitev za namen socialne koordinacije, kar ima za posledico stabilna ravnovesja. Konvencije nastajajo kot rešitve problema socialne koordinacije. V raziskavi smo potrjevali hipotezo, da take vedenjske zakonitosti postajajo izstopajoče zaradi zgodovine interakcij, ki jih poudarja kot uspešno rešitev. V igrah, pri katerih zgodovina interakcij ni usmerjala na izbiro katere koli specifične barve, smo v zadnjem krogu opazili statistično pomembno izboljšanje koordinacije. Zanimivo je, da se indeks koordinacije za ta krog ni bistveno spremenil v primerjavi med pogoji s skupno zgodovino in brez nje, zato dejanska stopnja koordinacije presega stopnjo pričakovane koordinacije, ko izbire sprejemajo naključno povezani udeleženci. V igrah, kjer je zgodovina krogov spodbudila izbiro določene barve, smo opazili, da je bila slednja ponavadi izbrana tudi v zadnjem krogu. Na ta način zgodovina interakcij določa strategijo koordinacije. Na podlagi zbranih rezultatov je razvidno, da je zmagovalna strategija, uporabljena v preteklosti, vzajemno pomembna in jo je mogoče znova uspešno uporabiti v podobnih situacijah. Na osnovi rezultatov raziskave smo ugotovili močan vpliv skupne zgodovine na medsebojno koordinacijo ter prispevali k boljšemu vpogledu v psihološke osnove družbenih procesov, skozi katere nastajajo konvencije. Z raziskovanjem individualne odvisnosti od poti v kontekstu koordinacije smo eksperimentalno potrdili, da se konvencije pojavljajo, ker se ljudje sistematično zanašajo na svoje pretekle interakcije za namen uspešnega medsebojnega usklajevanja.

Keywords:poudarjenost, igre koordinacije, zgodovina interakcij, odvisnost od poti, konvencije

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