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Ranljivost vodnih virov na podnebne spremembe v jugovzhodni Evropi : magistrsko delo
ID Martinjak, Barbara (Author), ID Čenčur Curk, Barbara (Mentor) More about this mentor... This link opens in a new window, ID Verbovšek, Timotej (Comentor)

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Abstract
Magistrsko delo temelji na obravnavi količinskega stanja vodnih virov v jugovzhodni Evropi, ki se spreminja zaradi različnih vrednosti podnebnih spremenljivk. To so temperatura, padavine in evapotranspiracija, privzete iz nabora različnih globalnih in regionalnih podnebnih modelov. Podatki so prikazani za dve obdobji: za referenčno obdobje v letih 1981–2010 in glede na scenarij izpustov RCP 8.5 (angl. representative concentration pathway, RCP; za 8.5 W/m2 sevalnega prispevka) za prihodnost v letih 2021–2050. Na podlagi podnebnih spremenljivk sem izračunala celotni lokalni odtok (angl. local total runoff, LTR), ki predstavlja teoretično razpoložljivo količino vodnih virov z upoštevanjem količine padavin in evapotranspiracije. Ranljivost vodnih virov je v veliki meri odvisna od različne rabe vode (angl. water demand, WD), in sicer raba v gospodinjstvih, industriji in za kmetovanje. Razmerje med WD in LTR predstavlja indeks izkoriščanja vode (angl. local water exploitation index, LWEI), ki opiše ranljivost vodnih sistemov na podnebne spremembe. LWEI sem izračunala na podlagi dveh scenarijev: za referenčno obdobje in za scenarij izpustov RCP 8.5 za prihodnost; pri obeh na letni, poletni in zimski ravni. Končna ocena ranljivosti vodnih virov na podnebne spremembe je določena z letnim indeksom izkoriščanja vode, korigiranim s poletno sezono (LWEIasw). Kategorizirala sem ga v štiri razrede, ki predstavljajo različne stopnje ranljivosti vodnih virov na podnebne spremembe (zelo nizek/nizek/srednji/visok), brez obravnave kakovosti vode in sposobnosti prilagoditve. Najbolj ranljiva so območja, kjer je razpoložljivost vode majhna in indeks izkoriščanja vode visok. V jugovzhodni Evropi so to države: Albanija, Bolgarija, Črna gora, Grčija, Hrvaška, Madžarska, Romunija, Severna Makedonija in Srbija.

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:Ranljivost vodnih virov, podnebne spremembe, indeks izkoriščanja vode, scenarij izpustov RCP 8.5, jugovzhodna Evropa.
Work type:Master's thesis/paper
Typology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:NTF - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Engineering
Place of publishing:Ljubljana
Publisher:[B. Martinjak]
Year:2023
Number of pages:XVII, 55 str.
PID:20.500.12556/RUL-145215 This link opens in a new window
UDC:55
COBISS.SI-ID:149537027 This link opens in a new window
Publication date in RUL:13.04.2023
Views:506
Downloads:81
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Water resources vulnerability due to climate changes in Southeastern Europe : master's thesis
Abstract:
The master's thesis is based on available amount of water resources in Southeastern Europe. Quantity of water resources is changing due to different climate variables. These are temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration, derived from an ensemble of different global and regional climate models. The data are shown for two periods: for the reference period in 1981–2010 and for the future in 2021–2050 (according to the RCP 8.5 emission scenario). Local total runoff (LTR) represents the theoretical available amount of water resources, which is calculated from the basic climate variables. Water demand data (WD) were acquired for various sectors, namely households, industry, and agriculture. Local water exploitation index (LWEI) is determined by water demand in relation to the total local runoff, which shows the vulnerability of water resources or water stress due to climate changes. LWEI is presented on an annual and seasonal basis (considering summer and winter season). The final assessment of water resources vulnerability is determined by the annual local water exploitation index corrected for seasonality (LWEIasw) for both scenarios. It is specified with four stress classes. The results show the vulnerability of water resources on climate change, without determining water quality and the adaptive capacity factors. The most vulnerable are areas where the water supply is small, and the local water exploitation index is high. In Southeastern Europe, these countries are Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Montenegro, Serbia, Croatia and Hungary.

Keywords:Vulnerability of water resources, climate changes, water exploitation index, emission scenario RCP 8.5, Southeastern Europe.

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