Ocena vpliva kanibalizacije na redno prodajo

CEK, ROK (author), Možina, Martin (mentor)

Diplomska naloga obravnava problem napovedovanja redne prodaje izdelkov z upoštevanjem kanibalizacije. Napovedovanje prodaje je za trgovine pomembno, ker morajo imeti izdelke vedno na voljo, prostor v skladišču pa je omejen. Vpliv kanibalizacije je smiselno upoštevati, v kolikor damo en izdelek v promocijo, saj to vpliva na prodajo drugih izdelkov. Sama napoved prodaje pa nam tega ne bi mogla napovedati. Pri diplomski nalogi bo za napovedovanje prodaje uporabljena metoda drseče povprečje z vzvodi, ker jo trenutno uporablja Mercator, pri napovedi bo pa dodatno upoštevan še vpliv kanibalizacije. To metodo smo uporabili, ker jo že uporablja Mercator, je enostavna in že dokaj dobro napoveduje prodajo. Za napovedovanje bodo uporabljeni podatki Mercatorja in Walmarta. Na podlagi prodaje v prejšnjem obdobju bo z metodami napovedana prodaja v enem letu. Po izračunu napovedi bomo še evalvirali dobljene rezultate skupaj in po kategorijah ter ocenili, če smo izboljšali napovedi z upoštevanjem vpliva kanibalizacije.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: kanibalizacija, drseče povprečje, napoved prodaje
• Work type: Bachelor thesis/paper
• Typology: 2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
• Organization: FRI - Faculty of Computer and Information Science
• Year: 2022
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-140251
• COBISS.SI-ID: 121574659
• Publication date in RUL: 13.09.2022

CEK, ROK, 2022, Ocena vpliva kanibalizacije na redno prodajo [online]. Bachelor’s thesis. [Accessed 11 April 2025]. Retrieved from: https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=140251

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Assessment of the impact of cannibalization on regular sales

Abstract

This diploma thesis addresses the problem of regular sales forecasting adjusted by the effect of cannibalization. Sales forecasting is essential for companies because they need to always have products in stock, and have limited storage space in the stores. Having one product on sale affects the sales of other products. Because of this we need to adjust sales forecasts which don't take into account the effect of cannibalization on sales. In this diploma thesis the moving average method adjusted by the effects of cannibalization will be used for forecasting. This method will be used because the moving average method is already used by Mercator, it's simple and it gives reasonably accurate forecasts. The sales data of Mercator and Walmart will be used for forecasting one year sales based on the sales data of previous years. Finally we will evaluate the accuracy of the forecast together, first for all data and then by categories. In the end we will analyze if the forecast with cannibalization is more accurate than without it.

• Keywords: cannibalization, moving average, sales forecast