Napovedovanje sprememb rabe tal na Krvavcu s pomočjo metode markovskih verig

Mihelčič, Neža (author), Repe, Blaž (mentor)

V diplomskem delu so predstavljene in analizirane spremembe kategorij dejanske rabe na območju Krvavca za leti 2002 in 2020. Uporabljeni so bili podatkovni sloji iz Evidence dejanske rabe kmetijskih zemljišč in gozdnih zemljišč, ki jo upravlja Ministrstvo za kmetijstvo, gozdarstvo in prehrano. Cilj dela je bil z metodo markovskih verig v programskem orodju TerrSet napovedati rabo tal za leto 2030. Napovedane spremembe smo nato primerjali z dejansko rabo iz leta 2020 in izdelali karte sprememb izbranih kategorij rabe tal. Opisali smo tudi naravne in družbeno-geografske dejavnike, ki imajo vpliv na spremembe rabe tal in z njimi argumentirali napovedane spremembe rabe prostora.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: raba tal, geografski informacijski sistemi, markovske verige, Krvavec
• Work type: Bachelor thesis/paper
• Organization: FF - Faculty of Arts
• Year: 2022
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-139954
• Publication date in RUL: 09.09.2022

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Anticipated Land-Use Changes on Krvavec Using Markov Chains

Abstract

The bachelor's thesis presents and analyses the changes in the categories of actual land use on Mount Krvavec for the years 2002 and 2020, using data layers from the Register of Actual Use of Agricultural and Forest Land managed by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food. The aim of the thesis was to predict land use in 2030 using the Markov chain method in the TerrSet software tool. The predicted changes were then compared with the actual land use in 2020 and maps of changes in selected land-use categories were created. We also described the physical- and human-geographical factors that influence land-use change and used them to justify the predicted land-use changes.

• Keywords: land use, geographic information systems, Markov chains, Krvavec