One of the main fields of work of Masters of Pharmacy is Pharmacy practice, whose role in the health care system is increasing with the trend toward seamless patient care. The adoption of new legislation regulating Pharmacy practice meant a further evolution of work toward cognitive services, which are the added value of the Master of Pharmacy in supervising the treatment of patients with drugs. The future supply of this profession to the health care system and population will be challenged by the aging of the population and the associated increase in chronic diseases.
The goal of the thesis was to define the labour market of masters of pharmacy in pharmacy practice. We wanted to evaluate the trends in the labour market and the factors in its supply of adequate number of master's graduates. For the purpose of labour market study, we created a predictive model in Microsoft Excel. Our starting point was the number of graduates from the University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Pharmacy, which we divided in individual cohort groups according to the year of graduation. Selected model assumptions and parameters were analyzed by a sensitivity analysis, and then a labour market projection was made until the year 2070.
The results of the projection showed that the number of employed Master of Pharmacy graduates will increase from 3772 in 2020 to 4686 in 2030, given current trends and assumptions, such as enrollment, rate of students graduating, retirements, and so on. The growth trend continues until 2050, after which the number of working graduates stabilizes at 5940 in subsequent years. We found that approximately 41 % of Masters of Pharmacy are employed in Pharmacy practice. Primary level pharmacies employ 36 %, while secondary and tertiary levels of Pharmacy practice employ 5 % of working graduates. If the proportion of employment in pharmacy practice is maintained relative to the pharmaceutical industry, 265 additional Master of Pharmacy graduates would be available to meet pharmacy practice needs by 2030. After 2060, if employment growth in the labor market stabilizes, 878 additional Masters of Pharmacy would be available to meet Pharmacy practice needs. Mastery of Pharmacy employed in Pharmacy practice would in this time period increase from 1554 to 2432, with the number of graduates employed in Pharmacy practice per 10.000 population, taking in account the population forecast, increasing from 7,4 to 12,5. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that in the long run, the number of working graduates is most affected by retirement conditions and the number of enrollments.
The projection results were compared with the predicted population structure changes, that will increase the need for Pharmacy practice providers as the number of chronic diseases and polymorbidity increase. We described the increase in the volume of work with the growth of Pharmacy points and prescribtions issued, and we sought to match the trends with the results of the projection.
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