Analiza pretočnih vrednosti na vodotokih Planinskega polja na primeru poplav leta 2014

Mlakar, Tilen (author), Trobec, Tajan (mentor)

V magistrskem delu je predstavljena statistična analiza pretočnih vrednosti na vodotokih Planinskega polja in padavin v izbranem hidrografskem zaledju na primeru dveh ekstremnih padavinskih in poplavnih dogodkov leta 2014. Za preučevanje sta bili izbrani 64-dnevno obdobje pozimi 2014 in 47-dnevno obdobje jeseni 2014. Z uporabo podatkov o dnevnih pretokih in višini padavin je v nadaljevanju izdelana statistična analiza korelacije pretočnih in padavinskih vrednosti. Povezanost pretokov Unice in Malenščice s Pivko in Strženom smo preverjali s Pearsonovim in Spearmanovim determinacijskim koeficientom. Za analizo statističnih povezav padavin v Postojni, Cerknici, Planini in Jurišču s pretoki Unice in Malenščice pa je bila uporabljena križnokorelacijska funkcija. Rezultati povezav statističnih analiz pretokov vodotokov Planinskega polja z vodotoki v njegovem zaledju, kot tudi rezultati križne korelacije padavin v zaledju s pretoki Unice z nekaterimi izjemami v splošnem kažejo na razmeroma nizko povezanost. Vrednosti Pearsonovih determinacijskih koeficientov (R2) Unice s Pivko in Strženom znašajo od 0,33 do 0,70, medtem ko Unice s Malenščico od 0,69 do 0,96. Najvišje vrednosti križnokorelacijske funkcije pretokov vodotokov Planinskega polja in padavin v zaledju so v primeru preučevanih poplavnih dogodkov nizke (0,09–0,15) in dosežene ob razmeroma dolgih časovnih zamikih (od 14 do 24 dni). Zanesljivost rezultatov in ugotovitev je pogojena s kakovostjo vhodnih podatkov o pretokih, za katere se je v času raziskave izkazalo, da so ob ojezeritvah Planinskega polja izjemno nezanesljivi.

• Language: Slovenian
• Keywords: Planinsko polje, poplave, korelacija, kras, križna korelacija.
• Work type: Master's thesis/paper
• Organization: FF - Faculty of Arts
• Year: 2020
• PID: 20.500.12556/RUL-121451
• Publication date in RUL: 10.10.2020

MLAKAR, Tilen, 2020, Analiza pretočnih vrednosti na vodotokih Planinskega polja na primeru poplav leta 2014 [online]. Master’s thesis. [Accessed 3 April 2025]. Retrieved from: https://repozitorij.uni-lj.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=121451

Secondary language

• Language: English
• Title: Analysis of the discharge values of the streams of the Planina polje in the 2014 floods

Abstract

The Master's thesis presents a statistical analysis of the discharge values on the watercourses of the Planina polje and precipitation in the selected hydrographic catchment area in the case of two extreme precipitation and flood events in 2014. The 64-day period in winter 2014 and the 47-day period in autumn 2014 were selected for study. Data on daily discharge and precipitation levels was prepared below for the statistical analysis of the correlation between discharge and precipitation values. The correlation between the discharge values of the Unica and the Malenščica with the Pivka and the Stržen was calculated with Pearson’s and Spearman’s determination coefficients. The cross-correlation function was used to analyze the statistical correlation of precipitation in Postojna, Cerknica, Planina and Jurišče with the Unica and Malenščica discharge values. The results of the correlations of statistical analyses of the discharge of the Planina polje’s watercourses with the watercourses in its catchment, as well as the results of cross-correlation of precipitation in the selected catchment with Unica discharge generally show relatively low correlation with a few exceptions. The values of Pearson's determination coefficients (R2) of the Unica with the Pivka and the Stržen range from 0.33 to 0.70, while the Unica with the Malenščica ranges from 0.69 to 0.96.The highest values of the cross-correlation function of the discharge values of the Planina polje’s watercourses and precipitation in the catchment are low (0.09–0.15) in the case of the studied flood events and are achieved with relatively long time lags (from 14 to 24 days). The reliability of the results and findings is conditioned by the quality of the input data of the discharge values, which at the time of the research proved to be extremely unreliable during floods of the Planina polje.

• Keywords: Planina polje, floods, correlation, karst, cross-correlation.